Who is Mike Rounds and what is Rounds running on in the 2026 South Dakota Senate race?
Mike Rounds (R) is the heavy favorite in the 2026 South Dakota Senate race, with about a 90% chance of winning, according to Kalshi and Polymarket on Oct 1.
Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.
Mike Rounds is the Republican candidate for South Dakota U.S. Senate, and the incumbent. U.S. senator since 2015; former South Dakota governor (2003-2011); won the June 2026 primary with 75.8%. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Chance of winning: Kalshi and Polymarket, Oct 1
- The seat: Incumbent Mike Rounds (R) seeking a third term; Democrat Julian Beaudoin withdrew Aug 4 to 6, 2026 and was not replaced.
- Rating: Solid R (Cook).
- Polling: Rounds 45, Bengs 42 (Public Policy Polling, Sept 2026).
Why Rounds is ahead
- Republicans have not lost a South Dakota Senate race since 2008; two-term incumbent and former governor.
- Money gap: Rounds $4.5M raised vs Bengs $782K as of June 30, 2026.
- Race has become a head-to-head with independent Bengs after the Democrat dropped out; state Democrats are not endorsing Bengs.
- A September PPP poll shows the margin shrinking to 3 points from 13 in July, which explains Bengs’ roughly 10% market price.
What Rounds is running on
Rounds’s campaign has published little on specific policies so far. This page will be updated as positions are set out.
The other candidates
Every race
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