Politics 1

Who is Dan Ahlers and what is Ahlers running on in the 2026 South Dakota Governor race?

Dan Ahlers (D) is a long shot in the 2026 South Dakota Governor race, with about a 5% chance of winning, according to Kalshi on Sept 9.

Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.

Dan Ahlers is the Democratic candidate for South Dakota governor. Executive director of the South Dakota Democratic Party; three-term former state legislator. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

The race

South Dakota GovernorRhoden heavy favorite
Larry Rhoden R 95%Dan Ahlers D 5%

Chance of winning: Kalshi, Sept 9

  • The seat: Incumbent Larry Rhoden (R), who became governor in Jan 2025 when Kristi Noem resigned to become Homeland Security secretary.
  • Rating: Solid R (multiple forecasters, 2026).

Why Ahlers is behind

  • Democrats have not won a South Dakota governor’s race since 1974.
  • Rhoden is the incumbent and won the GOP runoff decisively, 70.8%-29.2% over Toby Doeden.
  • Rhoden is running on property tax cuts already passed (SB 96 and SB 245).

What Ahlers is running on

  • Eminent domain / pipelines. Opposes giving private companies eminent domain, citing carbon pipeline projects like Summit Carbon Solutions.
  • Property taxes. Calls for a full review of the state tax structure that protects school funding.
  • Economic development. Supports incentives only with transparency and job tracking; prioritizes ‘mom and pop’ small businesses.
  • Immigration. Open to cooperation on enforcement but objects to heavy-handed raids and masked agents.
  • Priorities. Emphasizes education, family farms and affordable healthcare.

In Ahlers’s own words

“The truth is, no matter our party, we share the same core values.”

The other candidates

Every race

See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.

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