Who is Mike Rogers and what is Rogers running on in the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
Mike Rogers (R) is the underdog in the 2026 Michigan Senate race, with about a 29% chance of winning, according to Kalshi on Oct 1.
Mike Rogers is the Republican candidate for Michigan U.S. Senate. Former FBI agent and US Representative for Michigan’s 8th district (2001-2015), ex-House Intelligence Committee chair; 2024 GOP Senate nominee (lost narrowly); Trump-endorsed; unopposed in 2026 primary. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Chance of winning: Kalshi, Oct 1
- The seat: Open seat (Democrat Gary Peters not seeking a third term).
- Rating: Toss-up (Cook, Apr 2026).
- Polling: El-Sayed 48, Rogers 46 (Emerson, Sept 12 to 14, 2026); Aug polls: Susquehanna El-Sayed 46 to 39, AARP 48 to 47, GBAO (D-sponsored) 50 to 44.
Why Rogers is behind
- Polls consistently show El-Sayed narrowly ahead (Emerson Sept: 48 to 46; four August polls all had him leading).
- National environment and Trump unpopularity in Michigan: Trump 40% approve / 55% disapprove in Emerson’s Sept poll.
- Republicans have not won a Michigan Senate race since 1994; Rogers already lost in 2024 to Elissa Slotkin by under 20,000 votes.
- Rogers‘ favorability is net negative (42/46) vs El-Sayed’s net positive (49/44); GOP attacks on El-Sayed as ’too far left’ have not yet moved general-election polls.
- Rogers’ path: strong with non-college voters (48 to 45) and $45M+ outside spending pledge from Senate Leadership Fund.
What Rogers is running on
- Economy / taxes. Advocates tax cuts for working families and a manufacturing revival; blames Democratic regulations for an ‘artificial increase’ in energy prices.
- Trump. Closely aligned with Trump and has vowed to stand with the president.
- Healthcare. Supports expanding the TrumpRx prescription drug program and penalties for non-transparent pricing; opposed the Affordable Care Act.
- Data centers. Supports a one-year moratorium on new data centers until questions about them are answered.
- Immigration. Defends Trump’s immigration strategy and deportation tactics.
- Israel. Recruiting Jewish Democrats uneasy with El-Sayed through a ‘Democrats for Mike Rogers’ coalition.
- Education / workforce. Wants shop classes back in schools as part of a manufacturing push.
The other candidates
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