Who is Larry Rhoden and what is Rhoden running on in the 2026 South Dakota Governor race?
Larry Rhoden (R) is the heavy favorite in the 2026 South Dakota Governor race, with about a 95% chance of winning, according to Kalshi on Sept 9.
Larry Rhoden is the Republican candidate for South Dakota governor, and the incumbent. Governor since January 2025; previously lieutenant governor under Kristi Noem; welder and rancher from Union Center; 25 years as state representative, state senator and in the executive branch. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Chance of winning: Kalshi, Sept 9
- The seat: Incumbent Larry Rhoden (R), who became governor in Jan 2025 when Kristi Noem resigned to become Homeland Security secretary.
- Rating: Solid R (multiple forecasters, 2026).
Why Rhoden is ahead
- Democrats have not won a South Dakota governor’s race since 1974.
- Rhoden is the incumbent and won the GOP runoff decisively, 70.8%-29.2% over Toby Doeden.
- Rhoden is running on property tax cuts already passed (SB 96 and SB 245).
What Rhoden is running on
- Property taxes. Touts 2026 laws he says cut owner-occupied property taxes by 34%.
- Local sales tax option. Backs letting counties adopt a local half-cent sales tax rather than abolishing property taxes, since they fund local services.
- Tax approach. Defends using sales-tax revenue for property tax relief.
In Rhoden’s own words
“The state doesn’t get one nickel of property taxes. It goes to fund local governments”
The other candidates
Every race
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