Politics 1

Who is David Jolly and what is Jolly running on in the 2026 Florida Governor race?

David Jolly (D) is the underdog in the 2026 Florida Governor race, with about a 21% chance of winning, according to Kalshi on Aug 24.

Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.

David Jolly is the Democratic candidate for Florida governor. Former Republican U.S. Representative (Pinellas) who switched to the Democratic Party; won the Aug 18, 2026 primary with 61%. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

The race

Florida GovernorDonalds favored
Byron Donalds R 79%David Jolly D 21%

Chance of winning: Kalshi, Aug 24

  • The seat: Open seat (Ron DeSantis, R, term-limited).
  • Rating: Solid R (Cook, per Newsweek July 2026).
  • Polling: Donalds 45, Jolly 38 among likely voters (August 2026 poll cited by DeFi Rate, Sept 28, 2026); UNF (July 2026) Donalds 46, Jolly 41.

Why Jolly is behind

  • Trump won Florida by 13 points in 2024; Republicans have held the governorship since 1999 and Democrats have not won statewide since 2018.
  • Huge money gap: Donalds and allied groups raised over $100M vs about $10M for Jolly.
  • Donalds has Trump’s endorsement and won the Aug 18 primary with 47.8% over Lt. Gov. Jay Collins.
  • Jolly has tied or led in several polls (e.g. Change Research +6 in July) on an affordability message, but many voters still do not know him.

What Jolly is running on

  • Affordability. Centers his campaign on affordability: property insurance costs, housing and healthcare.
  • Cost of living. Stresses affordability as voters’ top concern (half of UNF respondents named it the top issue).

The other candidates

Every race

See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.

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