Who is Ashley Moody and what is Moody running on in the 2026 Florida Senate special election race?
Ashley Moody (R) is the heavy favorite in the 2026 Florida Senate special election race, with about a 90% chance of winning, according to Kalshi and Polymarket on Sept 28.
Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.
Ashley Moody is the Republican candidate for Florida U.S. Senate (special election), and the incumbent. U.S. Senator since January 2025 (appointed by Gov. DeSantis); former Florida Attorney General; won the Aug 18, 2026 primary with 79.6%. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Chance of winning: Kalshi and Polymarket, Sept 28
- The seat: Special election for the rest of Marco Rubio’s term (to Jan 2029); appointed Republican Ashley Moody is running.
- Rating: Solid R (Cook, per Aug 2026 reports).
- Polling: Moody 45.2, Nixon 44.8 (St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics, published ~Sept 18, 2026); earlier Quantus Moody +7 and UNF (July) Moody +8.
Why Moody is ahead
- Florida has ~1.5M more registered Republicans than Democrats and has not elected a Democratic senator since 2012.
- Moody has Trump’s endorsement, appointed-incumbent status, and endorsements from 64 of 67 sheriffs.
- Nixon, a self-described democratic socialist, is seen as a tough fit statewide, though a mid-Sept poll showed a near-tie amid low Trump approval over the Iran war and the economy.
- Nixon attacks Moody over a grand jury report finding $10M was misappropriated to the Hope Florida Foundation while Moody was Attorney General (no indictments).
What Moody is running on
- Immigration. Introduced a bill for expedited removal of immigrants convicted of crimes and attacks Biden-era border policy.
- Crime. Runs as a law-and-order candidate and backs tougher penalties and wider use of capital punishment for violent crimes.
- Taxes / economy. Supports No Tax on Tips, No Tax on Overtime and No Tax on Social Security.
- Housing / regulation. Pledges to cut regulations, lower costs and make homeownership achievable.
- Trump. Closely aligned with Trump and runs on an ‘America First’ agenda.
In Moody’s own words
“We cannot let soft-on-crime policies affect the safety of our citizens.”
The other candidates
Every race
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