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Who is Byron Donalds and what is Donalds running on in the 2026 Florida Governor race?
Byron Donalds (R) is favored in the 2026 Florida Governor race, with about a 79% chance of winning, according to Kalshi on Aug 24.
Byron Donalds is the Republican candidate for Florida governor. U.S. Representative from Southwest Florida; Trump-endorsed; won the Aug 18, 2026 GOP primary with 47.8%. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Florida GovernorDonalds favored
Byron Donalds R 79%David Jolly D 21%
Chance of winning: Kalshi, Aug 24
- The seat: Open seat (Ron DeSantis, R, term-limited).
- Rating: Solid R (Cook, per Newsweek July 2026).
- Polling: Donalds 45, Jolly 38 among likely voters (August 2026 poll cited by DeFi Rate, Sept 28, 2026); UNF (July 2026) Donalds 46, Jolly 41.
Why Donalds is ahead
- Trump won Florida by 13 points in 2024; Republicans have held the governorship since 1999 and Democrats have not won statewide since 2018.
- Huge money gap: Donalds and allied groups raised over $100M vs about $10M for Jolly.
- Donalds has Trump’s endorsement and won the Aug 18 primary with 47.8% over Lt. Gov. Jay Collins.
- Jolly has tied or led in several polls (e.g. Change Research +6 in July) on an affordability message, but many voters still do not know him.
What Donalds is running on
- Trump. Runs as a conservative successor committed to Trump’s agenda.
- Immigration. Pledges to fight illegal immigration.
- Contrast messaging. Ran ads attacking California Gov. Gavin Newsom to frame the general election.
The other candidates
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See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.
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