Politics 1

Who is Ashley Hinson and what is Hinson running on in the 2026 Iowa Senate race?

Ashley Hinson (R) is leading in the 2026 Iowa Senate race, with about a 58% chance of winning, according to Kalshi on Oct 1.

Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.

Ashley Hinson is the Republican candidate for Iowa U.S. Senate. U.S. Representative for Iowa’s 2nd District since 2021; former state representative and KCRG-TV reporter. Won the June 2 primary with 73.9%. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

The race

Iowa SenateHinson leads
Ashley Hinson R 58%Josh Turek D 42%

Chance of winning: Kalshi, Oct 1

  • The seat: Open seat (Joni Ernst retiring).
  • Rating: Lean R (Cook and Sabato, June 2, 2026).
  • Polling: Turek 50, Hinson 46 (Fox News, June 23 to 27, 2026, 1,003 RV).

Why Hinson is ahead

  • Iowa’s Republican lean: Trump won it by 13 points in 2024, and Democrats haven’t won a Senate race there since 2008.
  • Hinson has Trump’s endorsement and a big money edge ($6.75M vs $3.91M raised by June 30).
  • But the race is close: polls are near-even, and in the Fox poll Trump was 42/55 underwater in Iowa, with inflation the top issue.
  • Farm frustration with tariffs is hurting Republicans with independents.

What Hinson is running on

  • Immigration. Runs on securing the border alongside President Trump.
  • Spending. Promises to cut wasteful federal spending.
  • Economy. Backs pro-growth economic policies.
  • Child care. Highlights her bipartisan child-care legislation.
  • Trump. Endorsed by Trump and runs as his ally.

The other candidates

Every race

See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.

Comments

Comments are public. Links are removed.

Ask a follow-up
Answered instantly. We don't show your name.

Work it out with people who are also paying attention.

Daily posts and a community reading past the headlines together.

Join me on CEEK