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Who is Ashley Hinson and what is Hinson running on in the 2026 Iowa Senate race?
Ashley Hinson (R) is leading in the 2026 Iowa Senate race, with about a 58% chance of winning, according to Kalshi on Oct 1.
Ashley Hinson is the Republican candidate for Iowa U.S. Senate. U.S. Representative for Iowa’s 2nd District since 2021; former state representative and KCRG-TV reporter. Won the June 2 primary with 73.9%. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
- The seat: Open seat (Joni Ernst retiring).
- Rating: Lean R (Cook and Sabato, June 2, 2026).
- Polling: Turek 50, Hinson 46 (Fox News, June 23 to 27, 2026, 1,003 RV).
Why Hinson is ahead
- Iowa’s Republican lean: Trump won it by 13 points in 2024, and Democrats haven’t won a Senate race there since 2008.
- Hinson has Trump’s endorsement and a big money edge ($6.75M vs $3.91M raised by June 30).
- But the race is close: polls are near-even, and in the Fox poll Trump was 42/55 underwater in Iowa, with inflation the top issue.
- Farm frustration with tariffs is hurting Republicans with independents.
What Hinson is running on
- Immigration. Runs on securing the border alongside President Trump.
- Spending. Promises to cut wasteful federal spending.
- Economy. Backs pro-growth economic policies.
- Child care. Highlights her bipartisan child-care legislation.
- Trump. Endorsed by Trump and runs as his ally.
The other candidates
Every race
See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.
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