I'm asking what are her chances of winning the US Senate Race?

Florida is a statewide race, and that changes everything compared to a legislative district in Jacksonville.

What the numbers say

Florida has approximately 22 million registered voters spread across a deeply varied political geography. The state has not sent a Democrat to the US Senate since Bill Nelson lost his seat in 2018. Since then, Florida's statewide results have moved further toward Republicans in each successive cycle. A progressive Democrat from a majority-minority urban district would need to build a coalition that goes well beyond her base, into suburban and rural counties where the political environment is currently very difficult for candidates with her profile.

That is not a judgment on her ability or her platform. It is the map.

What would have to go right

For any Democrat to win a Florida Senate seat right now, several things would need to line up at once. A favorable national environment, a Republican opponent with serious vulnerabilities, an unusually strong turnout operation in the I-4 corridor and South Florida, and enough independent voters moving toward the Democratic column to offset the registration gap. Any one of those is possible. All of them together in the same cycle is a harder ask.

Nixon is a progressive in a state where the Democratic Party's own internal debates about message and positioning are unresolved. That adds another layer of complexity on top of the structural challenge.

The honest assessment

If she is running, she is running as a long shot. That does not mean impossible. Long shots win when the environment shifts and the candidate executes well. But anyone telling you she is the favorite would not be reading the current Florida landscape straight.

The specific call depends on the cycle, the opponent, and whatever has changed in the state by the time votes are cast. Watch the fundraising numbers and the primary results closely, because those will tell you more than any early polling.