Who is Todd Achilles and what is Achilles running on in the 2026 Idaho Senate race?
Todd Achilles (I) is a long shot in the 2026 Idaho Senate race, with about a 7% chance of winning, according to Kalshi and Polymarket on Oct 1.
Todd Achilles is the independent candidate for Idaho U.S. Senate. Independent; former Idaho state representative (2024-2025, House Democratic caucus chair); former U.S. Army tank commander and tech executive (HP, T-Mobile); public policy lecturer at UC Berkeley. Endorsed by Democrats after their nominee withdrew. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Chance of winning: Kalshi and Polymarket, Oct 1
- The seat: Incumbent Jim Risch (R) seeking fourth term.
- Rating: Solid R (Cook, Inside Elections).
- Polling: Achilles 46 to 50, Risch 39 to 40 (Advanced Targeting Research, Sept 13 to 16, 2026); earlier Risch 52, Achilles 18 (Peak Insights, Aug 11 to 13, 2026).
Why Achilles is behind
- Idaho is deeply Republican; Republicans have not lost an Idaho Senate seat since 1974.
- Incumbency and money: Risch had $4.4M raised and $3.5M on hand by June 30 vs $692K raised and $194K on hand for Achilles.
- Achilles consolidated the anti-Risch vote after Democratic nominee David Roth withdrew on July 28 and Democrats rallied behind the independent. One September poll shows Achilles ahead, but polls disagree widely.
- Risch won his primary easily, with about 67%.
What Achilles is running on
- Public lands. Pledges to protect public lands.
- Debt. Wants to pay down the national debt.
- Economy. Promises to stand up to the corporate monopolies he says have rigged the economy.
- Campaign / accountability. Challenged Risch to three statewide debates on freedom, prosperity and international responsibility.
In Achilles’s own words
“Idaho deserves a public debate”
The other candidates
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