Who is John Stegner and what is Stegner running on in the 2026 Idaho Governor race?
John Stegner (I) is a long shot in the 2026 Idaho Governor race, with about a 1% chance of winning, according to Kalshi and Polymarket on Oct 1.
Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.
John Stegner is the independent candidate for Idaho governor. Independent; retired Idaho Supreme Court justice (2018-2023) and former Latah County district judge; 25 years on the bench; first statewide campaign. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Chance of winning: Kalshi and Polymarket, Oct 1
- The seat: Incumbent Brad Little (R) seeking third term.
- Rating: Solid R (Cook).
- Polling: Little 48, Pickens 27, Stegner 11 (July 2026 poll cited on Wikipedia; pollster not captured).
Why Stegner is behind
- Idaho’s strong Republican lean, plus a Trump endorsement for Little.
- Polling lead of about 20 points, with the opposition split between Democrat Pickens and independent Stegner.
- Money: Little had raised $2.1M vs $393K for Stegner, the best-funded challenger.
- Little beat a right-wing primary challenge with 59%.
What Stegner is running on
- Good government. Runs on restoring confidence in state government and officials who listen and solve problems.
- Independence. Says he would act free of outside partisan pressure and take good ideas from both parties.
In Stegner’s own words
“Those elected to listen, solve problems and serve the people of Idaho aren’t showing up the way they should.”
“neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have a lock on good ideas”
The other candidates
Every race
See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.
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