Who is Peggy Flanagan and what is Flanagan running on in the 2026 Minnesota Senate race?
Peggy Flanagan (D) is favored in the 2026 Minnesota Senate race, with about a 89% chance of winning, according to Kalshi and Polymarket on Oct 1.
Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.
Peggy Flanagan is the Democratic candidate for Minnesota U.S. Senate. Lieutenant Governor of Minnesota since 2019; former state representative; progressive backed by Bernie Sanders and Ilhan Omar; member of the White Earth Nation. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Chance of winning: Kalshi and Polymarket, Oct 1
- The seat: Open seat (Democrat Tina Smith retiring).
- Rating: Likely D (Cook, per Newsweek Sept 11, 2026).
- Polling: Flanagan 46, Tafoya 45 (InsiderAdvantage, released Sept 30, 2026); 270toWin 4-poll average Flanagan 44.8, Tafoya 43.3.
Why Flanagan is ahead
- Minnesota has not elected a Republican senator since 2002 and markets price Flanagan near 90% despite close polls.
- National environment favors Democrats; but recent polls show a near tie, so the market gap is larger than the polling gap.
- Tafoya’s attack line: Flanagan’s role as Lt. Governor during Minnesota’s social-services fraud scandal.
- Clear demographic split: Flanagan leads women 54 to 40 and voters under 45; Tafoya leads men and voters 45+ (Quantus, Sept 8 to 10).
What Flanagan is running on
- Healthcare. Supports Medicare for All and banning prior-authorization requirements.
- Immigration. Says ICE should be ‘ripped apart’ and get no more funding as it currently exists.
- Economy. Opposes recent tax cuts for the wealthy; wants to restore Medicaid and SNAP benefits.
- Guns. Wants to ban assault weapons and high-capacity magazines after the Annunciation school shooting.
- Trump. Criticizes Trump for firing 17 inspectors general and pardoning white-collar criminals.
- Mining / environment. Supports taconite mining while protecting the Boundary Waters.
In Flanagan’s own words
“I think that we have to rip ICE apart.”
“I know what it’s like to stretch 20 bucks through the end of the month.”
“we need to ban assault weapons and we need to ban high-capacity magazines”
The other candidates
Every race
See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.
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