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Who is Michele Tafoya and what is Tafoya running on in the 2026 Minnesota Senate race?
Michele Tafoya (R) is the underdog in the 2026 Minnesota Senate race, with about a 11% chance of winning, according to Kalshi and Polymarket on Oct 1.
Mary Spio
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Michele Tafoya is the Republican candidate for Minnesota U.S. Senate. Former NFL sideline reporter (four-time Emmy winner) running as a political outsider; first-time candidate. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Minnesota SenateFlanagan favored
Peggy Flanagan D 89%Michele Tafoya R 11%
Chance of winning: Kalshi and Polymarket, Oct 1
- The seat: Open seat (Democrat Tina Smith retiring).
- Rating: Likely D (Cook, per Newsweek Sept 11, 2026).
- Polling: Flanagan 46, Tafoya 45 (InsiderAdvantage, released Sept 30, 2026); 270toWin 4-poll average Flanagan 44.8, Tafoya 43.3.
Why Tafoya is behind
- Minnesota has not elected a Republican senator since 2002 and markets price Flanagan near 90% despite close polls.
- National environment favors Democrats; but recent polls show a near tie, so the market gap is larger than the polling gap.
- Tafoya’s attack line: Flanagan’s role as Lt. Governor during Minnesota’s social-services fraud scandal.
- Clear demographic split: Flanagan leads women 54 to 40 and voters under 45; Tafoya leads men and voters 45+ (Quantus, Sept 8 to 10).
What Tafoya is running on
- Fraud. Backs a ‘Deporting Fraudsters Act’ to deport non-citizens convicted of fraud and set mandatory minimums for citizens.
- Taxes / cost of living. Wants to protect working-family tax cuts and no taxes on tips or Social Security; says Minnesota’s tax burden drives people out.
- Immigration. Supports border security and ICE cooperation with local police, though she disagreed with how ‘Operation Metro Surge’ was carried out.
- Healthcare. Opposes Medicare for All; favors market-based reforms that give ‘power back to the patients’.
- Abortion. Describes herself as a pro-choice Republican.
- Guns. Supports the Second Amendment and enforcing existing gun laws.
- Elections. Supports voter ID and paper ballots.
In Tafoya’s own words
“I’m not going to BS you; I’m a pro-choice Republican.”
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