Who is Roger Marshall and what is Marshall running on in the 2026 Kansas Senate race?
Roger Marshall (R) is leading in the 2026 Kansas Senate race, with about a 69% chance of winning, according to Kalshi on Oct 1.
Roger Marshall is the Republican candidate for Kansas U.S. Senate, and the incumbent. U.S. Senator since 2021; former U.S. Representative for Kansas’s 1st District; OB-GYN physician; seven years in the Army Reserve. Close Trump ally. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
- The seat: Incumbent Roger Marshall (R) seeking second term.
- Rating: Likely R (Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections).
- Polling: Marshall 49, Hamilton 44 (co/efficient (R), Sept 8 to 10, 2026); Hamilton 44, Marshall 43 (Global Strategy Group (D), Aug 12 to 16, 2026).
Why Marshall is ahead
- Kansas lean: Democrats haven’t come within single digits of winning a Kansas Senate seat in more than 50 years.
- Incumbency and Trump’s endorsement for Marshall.
- Polls are unusually close (within 1 to 5 points) as Hamilton, a well-known megachurch pastor, attacks tariffs and rising costs.
- Hamilton is a first-time candidate who won a crowded primary with only 34.6%.
What Marshall is running on
- Healthcare. Proposes a ‘Marshall plan’: a one-year extension of ACA credits, then a move to health savings accounts instead of multi-year subsidy extensions.
- Abortion. Strongly opposes expanding abortion access.
- Trump. Endorsed by Trump and campaigns on Trump-aligned messaging, including military strength.
- Public health mandates. Opposed COVID-19 mask mandates.
In Marshall’s own words
“Tonight at midnight, we’re going to strike the clock and move on and take on the Democrat Socialist Party.”
The other candidates
Every race
See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.
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