Who is Marsha Blackburn and what is Blackburn running on in the 2026 Tennessee Governor race?
Marsha Blackburn (R) is the heavy favorite in the 2026 Tennessee Governor race, with about a 96% chance of winning, according to Kalshi on Sept 9.
Marsha Blackburn is the Republican candidate for Tennessee governor. U.S. senator from Tennessee since 2019 and former U.S. representative; would be Tennessee’s first female governor. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Chance of winning: Kalshi, Sept 9
- The seat: Open seat (Bill Lee term-limited).
- Rating: Safe R (Cook, Sabato).
- Polling: Blackburn 45, Green 36 (TargetSmart, Sept 9 to 12, 2026); Beacon Center (early Sept): Blackburn 55, Green 34.
Why Blackburn is ahead
- No Democrat has won statewide in Tennessee since Phil Bredesen in 2006.
- Blackburn is a sitting two-term U.S. senator, a high-profile Trump ally, and won a three-way GOP primary with 43.6%.
- Every poll has her ahead by 9 to 21 points, though her lead is smaller in the latest polls and Trump’s approval in the state is underwater (48/51).
What Blackburn is running on
- Immigration. Emphasizes immigration enforcement; backed Trump’s border wall and travel ban.
- China / national security. Campaigns on national security and countering China’s economic influence.
- Abortion. Strongly anti-abortion; worked to overturn Roe v. Wade.
- Kids online safety. Lead author of the Kids Online Safety Act; the REPORT Act on reporting online child abuse became law in 2024.
- Guns. Opposes new gun restrictions; voted against the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act.
- Trump. Close Trump ally who served on his transition team.
The other candidates
Every race
See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.
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