Politics 1

Who is Bill Hagerty and what is Hagerty running on in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race?

Bill Hagerty (R) is the heavy favorite in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race, with about a 97% chance of winning, according to Kalshi and Polymarket on Sept 9.

Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.

Bill Hagerty is the Republican candidate for Tennessee U.S. Senate, and the incumbent. U.S. senator since 2021; U.S. Ambassador to Japan (2017-2019) under Trump; former Tennessee economic development commissioner; private equity businessman. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

The race

Tennessee SenateHagerty heavy favorite
Bill Hagerty R 97%Marquita Bradshaw D 3%

Chance of winning: Kalshi and Polymarket, Sept 9

  • The seat: Incumbent Bill Hagerty (R) seeking a second term; rematch of 2020.
  • Rating: Solid R (Cook, RealClearPolitics).
  • Polling: Hagerty 58, Bradshaw 33 (Beacon Center, released Sept 3, 2026).

Why Hagerty is ahead

  • Democrats have not won a Tennessee Senate race since 1990.
  • Hagerty beat Bradshaw by about 62% in 2020 and has a vast money edge (~$16M raised vs a few thousand for Bradshaw in the primary phase).
  • Trump-endorsed incumbent leads by 25 points, even though Trump’s approval in Tennessee has slipped to 48/51.

What Hagerty is running on

  • Crypto. Wrote and championed the GENIUS Act, the first major federal stablecoin law, signed July 2025.
  • Taxes / budget. Supports lower taxes and a balanced budget amendment.
  • Energy. Supports more fossil fuel development and repealing renewable and efficiency standards.
  • China / fentanyl. Focuses on China and fentanyl overdoses in committee work.
  • Trump. Trump-endorsed; views described as populist and aligned with Trump.
  • Elections. Has questioned the integrity of the 2020 election.

In Hagerty’s own words

“The lack of transparency and irregularities that we’ve seen are a cause of great concern.”

The other candidates

Every race

See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.

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