Who is Katie Hobbs and what is Hobbs running on in the 2026 Arizona Governor race?
Katie Hobbs (D) is favored in the 2026 Arizona Governor race, with about a 79% chance of winning, according to Polymarket on Aug 21.
Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.
Katie Hobbs is the Democratic candidate for Arizona governor, and the incumbent. Governor of Arizona since 2023; former Arizona Secretary of State and state legislator; beat Kari Lake by under 1 point in 2022. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
- The seat: Incumbent Katie Hobbs (D) seeking a second term.
- Rating: Lean D (Cook and Sabato, per Newsweek, July 2026).
- Polling: Hobbs 48, Biggs 35, Green 2, No Labels 1, undecided 12 (Noble Predictive Insights, Aug 10 to 13, 2026, 923 LV).
Why Hobbs is ahead
- Hobbs leads every 2026 poll since spring, and her share rose 5 points since May after a summer ad blitz.
- Biggs is a former House Freedom Caucus chair who backed efforts to overturn the 2020 result, which may limit his appeal with independents and Maricopa suburban moderates.
- Biggs co-sponsored a no-exceptions abortion ban, after Arizona voters put abortion rights in the state constitution.
- Republicans have widened their voter-registration edge and Trump won Arizona by 5.5 in 2024; Hobbs won in 2022 by under 1 point.
What Hobbs is running on
- Water. Conservation first: cancelled Fondomonte groundwater leases, created new Active Management Areas, and limited building without assured water supply.
- Abortion. Signed the 2024 repeal of Arizona’s near-total abortion ban.
- Economy / budget. Signed a bipartisan budget pausing data center tax exemptions for 3 years, redirecting ~$57M to childcare and healthcare.
- Immigration. Vetoed bills forcing state cooperation with ICE; created Task Force SAFE against drug trafficking.
- Education. Wants guardrails and fraud controls on the universal ESA voucher program.
In Hobbs’s own words
“We can’t just keep relying on Colorado River water without conserving. We have to conserve.”
“The more Arizonans learn about Biggs, the more they’ll realize he’s one big problem they can’t afford.”
The other candidates
Every race
See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.
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