Who is Jeff Merkley and what is Merkley running on in the 2026 Oregon Senate race?
Jeff Merkley (D) is the heavy favorite in the 2026 Oregon Senate race, with about a 98% chance of winning, according to Kalshi on Sept 9.
Jeff Merkley is the Democratic candidate for Oregon U.S. Senate, and the incumbent. U.S. Senator since 2009; previously Oregon House member (1999-2009) and House Speaker; Stanford and Princeton graduate from Myrtle Creek. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Chance of winning: Kalshi, Sept 9
- The seat: Jeff Merkley (D) seeking a fourth term.
- Rating: Solid D (Cook).
Why Merkley is ahead
- Oregon is D+8 and Republicans have not won a Senate seat there since 2002.
- Merkley is a three-term incumbent who took 93% in his primary.
- Huge money gap: Merkley raised $7.89M vs Brock Smith’s ~$121K as of June 30, 2026.
- Brock Smith won a fractured GOP primary with only 29.5%.
What Merkley is running on
- Trump. Campaign says he is ‘fighting to stop Trump’s authoritarian state’.
- Family economics. Campaign platform built on ‘four foundations for thriving families: health care, housing, education, and good-paying jobs’.
- Democracy / norms. Opposes putting a sitting president’s portrait in U.S. passports.
In Merkley’s own words
“To our knowledge, no country places the portrait of a sitting leader in its passport. Even the most authoritarian and autocratic governments have avoided equating national identity to the sitting president in such a way.”
The other candidates
Every race
See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.
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