Politics 20

Who is Xavier Becerra and what is Becerra running on in the 2026 California Governor race?

Xavier Becerra (D) is the heavy favorite in the 2026 California Governor race, with about a 96% chance of winning, according to Kalshi and Polymarket on Oct 1.

Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.

Xavier Becerra is the Democratic candidate for California governor. Former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary (2021-2025), former California Attorney General and longtime Los Angeles congressman; topped the June 2026 primary with 28%. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

The race

California GovernorBecerra heavy favorite
Xavier Becerra D 96%Steve Hilton R 4%

Chance of winning: Kalshi and Polymarket, Oct 1

  • The seat: Open seat (Gavin Newsom (D) term-limited); top-two general.
  • Polling: Becerra 55, Hilton 37, undecided 7 (UC Berkeley IGS/L.A. Times, released Aug 14, 2026); Becerra 49.2, Hilton 41 (David Wolfson, Aug 14 to 16, 2026, 912 RV).

Why Becerra is ahead

  • California is heavily Democratic and voters are splitting on party lines.
  • Hilton’s Trump endorsement is a big hurdle in California, per analyst Dan Schnur.
  • Becerra leads every public poll (8 to 18 points).
  • Hilton’s attack line: Becerra’s HHS record on migrant children; he pushes gas-tax and income-tax cuts on cost of living.

What Becerra is running on

  • Cost of living. Declare a state of emergency to freeze insurance and utility rates; crack down on price gouging.
  • Housing. Fund 40,000 affordable units; push cities to zone for apartments and duplexes.
  • Homelessness. Rental assistance; people should not be allowed to stay on the street when offered shelter.
  • Taxes. Progressive taxation; extend higher rates on top earners for schools.
  • Climate / energy. Backs clean-energy goals but open to revising them if they make energy unaffordable; opposed suspending the gas tax.
  • Trump. Makes fighting Trump central, citing 100+ lawsuits as AG in Trump’s first term.
  • Tech. Ban social media for under-16s; require AI transparency in hiring.

The other candidates

Every race

See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.

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