Politics 16

Who is Steve Hilton and what is Hilton running on in the 2026 California Governor race?

Steve Hilton (R) is a long shot in the 2026 California Governor race, with about a 4% chance of winning, according to Kalshi and Polymarket on Oct 1.

Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.

Steve Hilton is the Republican candidate for California governor. British-American political strategist, former Fox News host and ex-adviser to UK PM David Cameron; Trump-endorsed; second in the June 2026 primary (24.6%). Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

The race

California GovernorBecerra heavy favorite
Xavier Becerra D 96%Steve Hilton R 4%

Chance of winning: Kalshi and Polymarket, Oct 1

  • The seat: Open seat (Gavin Newsom (D) term-limited); top-two general.
  • Polling: Becerra 55, Hilton 37, undecided 7 (UC Berkeley IGS/L.A. Times, released Aug 14, 2026); Becerra 49.2, Hilton 41 (David Wolfson, Aug 14 to 16, 2026, 912 RV).

Why Hilton is behind

  • California is heavily Democratic and voters are splitting on party lines.
  • Hilton’s Trump endorsement is a big hurdle in California, per analyst Dan Schnur.
  • Becerra leads every public poll (8 to 18 points).
  • Hilton’s attack line: Becerra’s HHS record on migrant children; he pushes gas-tax and income-tax cuts on cost of living.

What Hilton is running on

  • Cost of living / gas. Cut the gas tax in half and suspend environmental rules to lower gas prices; promises $3 gas.
  • Taxes. No state income tax on the first $150,000 of earnings, flat rate above.
  • Housing. ‘Bring back the starter home’ by cutting fees and limiting CEQA lawsuits.
  • Homelessness. Street camping should be illegal; police to clear encampments.
  • Healthcare / immigration. End Medi-Cal for undocumented immigrants.
  • Crime. Reopen closed prisons and reduce early releases.
  • Education. Phonics; hold back non-proficient third-graders; make teacher firing easier.

In Hilton’s own words

“Xavier Becerra’s support is collapsing as more Californians learn about his horrific record as HHS secretary, which sent thousands of Latino kids into the clutches of child sex and labor traffickers.”

“The key is to build faster”

The other candidates

Every race

See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.

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