Who is Tom Tiffany and what is Tiffany running on in the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race?
Tom Tiffany (R) is the underdog in the 2026 Wisconsin Governor race, with about a 20% chance of winning, according to Kalshi on Sept 9.
Tom Tiffany is the Republican candidate for Wisconsin governor. U.S. Representative for Wisconsin’s 7th District since 2020; former state senator and Assembly member; ran a tour-boat business; Trump-endorsed; running mate is Lancaster Mayor David Varnam. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Chance of winning: Kalshi, Sept 9
- The seat: Open seat (Tony Evers (D) not seeking a third term).
- Rating: Toss-up (Cook, Aug 2026).
- Polling: Crowley 49, Tiffany 44 among likely voters (Marquette Law School, Aug 12 to 20, 2026); polling average Crowley 47.9, Tiffany 44.0 (as of Sept 13, 2026, per Wikipedia).
Why Tiffany is behind
- Crowley leads every post-primary poll by 3 to 5 points, and leads independents 55 to 16 in Marquette’s likely-voter sample.
- National environment: Trump’s approval is -19 in the Marquette poll, and Crowley ties Tiffany to Trump; Tiffany is a Trump-endorsed Freedom Caucus member who objected to certifying the 2020 results.
- Markets see Crowley, a moderate, as more electable than progressive Francesca Hong would have been; he went from 40% to about 80% after the primary.
- Tiffany’s case: Republican voters are more enthusiastic (55% vs 49% very enthusiastic), registered voters are tied 44 to 44, and he attacks Crowley’s Milwaukee County tax and deficit record.
What Tiffany is running on
- Taxes and regulation. Wants a governor who will ‘get control of taxes and regulations’ and make state government more accountable.
- Data centers / farmland. Wants to end state subsidies for data centers and add protections for ratepayers, farmland and water.
- Cost of living. Attacks Crowley for making life more expensive in Milwaukee County through sales and property tax increases.
- Abortion. Has co-sponsored federal heartbeat bills (the 2023 version included rape and incest exceptions).
- Families and farmers. Says he is running so every Wisconsin family has ‘the same shot at the American Dream’.
In Tiffany’s own words
“We need a governor that’s going to get control of taxes and regulations and make state government more accountable to the people.”
“He is making life more expensive for people in Milwaukee County. Do we want that for Wisconsin?”
“There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between David Crowley and Francesca Hong.”
The other candidates
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