Who is Seth Bodnar and what is Bodnar running on in the 2026 Montana Senate race?
Seth Bodnar (I) is a long shot in the 2026 Montana Senate race, with about a 8% chance of winning, according to Kalshi and Polymarket on Oct 1.
Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.
Seth Bodnar is the independent candidate for Montana U.S. Senate. Former University of Montana president (2018-2026), Green Beret and Rhodes Scholar; independent who says he won’t caucus with either party. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Chance of winning: Kalshi and Polymarket, Oct 1
- The seat: Open seat (Republican Steve Daines withdrew minutes before the March 5, 2026 filing deadline and endorsed Alme).
- Rating: Solid R (Cook and Inside Elections).
- Polling: Alme 44, Bodnar 22, Bankhead 19 (Alme campaign internal, late Aug 2026, via Semafor); averages: Alme about 43 to 44, Bodnar 24 to 27, Bankhead 19 to 21.
Why Bodnar is behind
- Anti-Republican vote is split between independent Bodnar and Democrat Bankhead, who refused to drop out; Alme only needs a plurality.
- Montana’s Republican lean; Alme is backed by Trump, Daines and Gov. Gianforte.
- Head-to-head, Bodnar polled even with Alme (Tavern Research), so consolidation would make it competitive.
- Polling averages give Alme about an 18-point lead.
What Bodnar is running on
- Spending / debt. Calls runaway federal spending, including under Trump, a moral failure.
- Public lands. Supports protecting public lands, reviving the wood-products industry and responsible forest management.
- Healthcare. Wants to restore ACA subsidies, protect Medicaid expansion, reverse work-requirement verifications and defend rural hospitals.
- Immigration. Backs responsible enforcement and a clear path to citizenship; wants accountability for enforcement abuses.
- Personal freedom. Says government has no business in bedrooms, doctor’s offices or gun cabinets.
- Independence. Pledges not to join either party’s caucus; endorsed by End Citizens United.
In Bodnar’s own words
“To me, this is an absolute moral failure, to see our politicians in D.C. spending like drunken sailors”
“We didn’t do that in Iraq. We should not allow that to happen on our soil”
The other candidates
Every race
See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.
Follow-ups
Work it out with people who are also paying attention.
Daily posts and a community reading past the headlines together.
Join me on CEEK
Comments
Comments are public. Links are removed.