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Who is Kurt Alme and what is Alme running on in the 2026 Montana Senate race?
Kurt Alme (R) is the heavy favorite in the 2026 Montana Senate race, with about a 91% chance of winning, according to Kalshi and Polymarket on Oct 1.
Mary Spio
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Kurt Alme is the Republican candidate for Montana U.S. Senate. Former US Attorney for Montana (2017-2020, 2025-2026); won June 2026 GOP primary with 76%; endorsed by Trump, Daines and Gianforte. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Montana SenateAlme heavy favorite
Chance of winning: Kalshi and Polymarket, Oct 1
- The seat: Open seat (Republican Steve Daines withdrew minutes before the March 5, 2026 filing deadline and endorsed Alme).
- Rating: Solid R (Cook and Inside Elections).
- Polling: Alme 44, Bodnar 22, Bankhead 19 (Alme campaign internal, late Aug 2026, via Semafor); averages: Alme about 43 to 44, Bodnar 24 to 27, Bankhead 19 to 21.
Why Alme is ahead
- Anti-Republican vote is split between independent Bodnar and Democrat Bankhead, who refused to drop out; Alme only needs a plurality.
- Montana’s Republican lean; Alme is backed by Trump, Daines and Gov. Gianforte.
- Head-to-head, Bodnar polled even with Alme (Tavern Research), so consolidation would make it competitive.
- Polling averages give Alme about an 18-point lead.
What Alme is running on
- Trump. Running with Trump’s endorsement.
The other candidates
Every race
See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.
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