Politics 1

Who is Phil Scott and what is Scott running on in the 2026 Vermont Governor race?

Phil Scott (R) is the heavy favorite in the 2026 Vermont Governor race, with about a 91% chance of winning, according to Kalshi on Sept 9.

Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.

Phil Scott is the Republican candidate for Vermont governor, and the incumbent. Governor of Vermont since 2017; moderate Republican, previously lieutenant governor and state senator. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

The race

Vermont GovernorScott heavy favorite
Phil Scott R 91%Amanda Janoo D 9%

Chance of winning: Kalshi, Sept 9

  • The seat: Incumbent Phil Scott (R) seeking a sixth two-year term.
  • Rating: Solid R (Cook, Sept 2025).
  • Polling: Janoo 49, Scott 43 (UNH Green Mountain State Poll, Sept 17 to 21, 2026); earlier UNH July 15 to 20: Scott 44, Janoo 33.

Why Scott is ahead

  • Scott has long incumbency and a personal brand separate from the national GOP; he won his last three general elections by 39+ points.
  • But his approval fell to 47% (from 61% in Oct 2025) and the latest UNH poll flipped to Janoo +6, a 21-point swing since July, after Scott vetoed progressive legislation.
  • Scott holds a cash-on-hand edge ($309K vs $59K on Sept 1) even though Janoo has outraised him with small donors.
  • Scott’s campaign disputes the poll’s sample (60% Democrats) as ‘statistical malpractice’; markets priced Scott ~90% before that poll.

What Scott is running on

  • Education. Supports consolidating school governance and overhauling education funding, acknowledging it will close some small schools.
  • Taxes / cost of living. Campaign frames itself as offering ‘mainstream solutions’ against ‘expensive activist policy experiments’ and Janoo’s tax increases.
  • Vetoes. Has vetoed progressive legislation passed by the Democratic legislature, a key point of contention this cycle.
  • Party brand. Runs on a personal brand separate from the national Republican Party.

In Scott’s own words

“The governor has been doing this for a long time, so we got somewhat lucky in the sense we had some money in the bank to start us off.”

The other candidates

Every race

See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.

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