Who is Mary Peltola and what is Peltola running on in the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
Mary Peltola (D) is favored in the 2026 Alaska Senate race, with about a 72% chance of winning, according to Kalshi and Polymarket on Sept 28.
Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.
Mary Peltola is the Democratic candidate for Alaska U.S. Senate. Former U.S. Representative for Alaska at-large (2022-2025), first Alaska Native in Congress; lost re-election narrowly in 2024. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Chance of winning: Kalshi and Polymarket, Sept 28
- The seat: Incumbent Dan Sullivan (R) seeking a third term; top-four primary + ranked-choice general.
- Rating: Lean R (Sabato, per Akashic, date unclear).
- Polling: Recent polls mixed: Trafalgar (Sept 26, 2026) Sullivan 47, Peltola 46; Alaska Survey Research (Sept 22) Peltola 48, Sullivan 44; co/efficient (Sept 17) Sullivan 48, Peltola 46; AARP (Sept 17) Peltola 46, Sullivan 41. Minor candidates D.J. Sullivan and Heikes at 1 to 4%.
Why Peltola is ahead
- Peltola led the August top-four primary 49.5% to Sullivan’s 41.4%.
- Peltola has proven crossover appeal: ran 11 points ahead of Kamala Harris in 2024 and lost her House seat by only 2.2 in a Trump +13 state; ranked-choice voting rewards broad appeal.
- Sullivan’s advantages: state lean (Trump won Alaska twice), incumbency, and close alignment with the Trump administration on oil and gas.
- Polling is close to even (several September polls within the margin), so markets price Peltola as favorite rather than a lock.
- Peltola argues Trump’s DOGE federal firings hit Alaska harder than any state, slowing permits.
What Peltola is running on
- Energy / resource development. Pro-development; takes credit for helping advance ConocoPhillips’ Willow oil project and wants more permitting certainty that does not shift with each administration.
- Federal workforce / DOGE. Criticizes Trump’s DOGE mass firings for worsening permitting delays in Alaska.
- Guns. Pro-gun; was the only Democrat endorsed by the NRA in 2024.
- Trump. Opposed Trump’s order renaming Denali.
In Peltola’s own words
“The future of our projects can’t be changing at the whims of every new administration”
“DOGE impacted Alaska more than any other state, and no other state is more impacted by our federal agencies”
“I’m proud of the work that I did within the Biden administration to talk about Willow in a way that they could understand”
The other candidates
Every race
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