Who is Dan Sullivan and what is Sullivan running on in the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
Dan Sullivan (R) is the underdog in the 2026 Alaska Senate race, with about a 29% chance of winning, according to Kalshi and Polymarket on Sept 28.
Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.
Dan Sullivan is the Republican candidate for Alaska U.S. Senate, and the incumbent. U.S. Senator from Alaska since 2015; former Alaska Attorney General and Marine Corps Reserve officer. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Chance of winning: Kalshi and Polymarket, Sept 28
- The seat: Incumbent Dan Sullivan (R) seeking a third term; top-four primary + ranked-choice general.
- Rating: Lean R (Sabato, per Akashic, date unclear).
- Polling: Recent polls mixed: Trafalgar (Sept 26, 2026) Sullivan 47, Peltola 46; Alaska Survey Research (Sept 22) Peltola 48, Sullivan 44; co/efficient (Sept 17) Sullivan 48, Peltola 46; AARP (Sept 17) Peltola 46, Sullivan 41. Minor candidates D.J. Sullivan and Heikes at 1 to 4%.
Why Sullivan is behind
- Peltola led the August top-four primary 49.5% to Sullivan’s 41.4%.
- Peltola has proven crossover appeal: ran 11 points ahead of Kamala Harris in 2024 and lost her House seat by only 2.2 in a Trump +13 state; ranked-choice voting rewards broad appeal.
- Sullivan’s advantages: state lean (Trump won Alaska twice), incumbency, and close alignment with the Trump administration on oil and gas.
- Polling is close to even (several September polls within the margin), so markets price Peltola as favorite rather than a lock.
- Peltola argues Trump’s DOGE federal firings hit Alaska harder than any state, slowing permits.
What Sullivan is running on
- Energy. Aggressive oil and gas development; credits the Trump administration’s day-one executive order to ‘unleash’ Alaska resources.
- Permitting. Sponsors the Rebuild America Now Act to speed environmental reviews; touts regulatory reform with Trump administration support.
- Trump. Close ally of President Trump and his cabinet.
- Attacks on Peltola. Ties Peltola to ‘Lower 48’ Democrats he says tried to shut down Alaska oil and gas; criticizes her for the Biden-era Interior Department.
In Sullivan’s own words
“Alaska has one of the most exciting oil and gas comebacks in the world, with thousands of jobs”
“We were able to get the Trump administration, who issued an executive order on day one to unleash Alaska’s extraordinary resource potential”
The other candidates
Every race
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