Who is Kelly Ayotte and what is Ayotte running on in the 2026 New Hampshire Governor race?
Kelly Ayotte (R) is the heavy favorite in the 2026 New Hampshire Governor race, with about a 91% chance of winning, according to Kalshi on Sept 29.
Kelly Ayotte is the Republican candidate for New Hampshire governor, and the incumbent. Governor of New Hampshire since 2025; former U.S. Senator (2011-2017) and state attorney general. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Chance of winning: Kalshi, Sept 29
- The seat: Incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R) seeking a second two-year term.
- Rating: Likely R (Cook, Sabato).
- Polling: Ayotte 49, Warmington 39 (UNH, Aug 20 to 24, 2026).
Why Ayotte is ahead
- Incumbent Ayotte leads by ~10 to 11 points in August polls and her approval improved.
- She has kept her distance from Trump while signing conservative priorities (bail, voter ID, sanctuary-city ban, universal education freedom accounts) and vetoing some divisive bills.
- Warmington is weighed down by past lobbying for Purdue Pharma, which Ayotte attacks.
- Ayotte won in 2024 by 9.3 points; New Hampshire elects Republican governors despite voting D for president.
What Ayotte is running on
- Crime. Rolled back parts of bail reform as too lenient.
- Education. Expanded education freedom accounts to all families regardless of income; signed a parental bill of rights and a school cellphone restriction.
- Immigration. Signed a ban on sanctuary cities.
- Taxes/budget. Says Warmington would bring higher taxes; signed a budget with agency cuts.
- Trump. Pragmatic engagement with the Trump administration on federal funds rather than lawsuits.
- Elections. Enacted stricter voter ID rules.
In Ayotte’s own words
“I’m standing with the people of New Hampshire.”
“We can’t elect an opioid lobbyist to be our governor.”
The other candidates
Every race
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