Who is Cinde Warmington and what is Warmington running on in the 2026 New Hampshire Governor race?
Cinde Warmington (D) is a long shot in the 2026 New Hampshire Governor race, with about a 9% chance of winning, according to Kalshi on Sept 29.
Cinde Warmington is the Democratic candidate for New Hampshire governor. Former New Hampshire Executive Councilor (2021-2025) and health care lawyer; lost the 2024 Democratic primary for governor. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Chance of winning: Kalshi, Sept 29
- The seat: Incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R) seeking a second two-year term.
- Rating: Likely R (Cook, Sabato).
- Polling: Ayotte 49, Warmington 39 (UNH, Aug 20 to 24, 2026).
Why Warmington is behind
- Incumbent Ayotte leads by ~10 to 11 points in August polls and her approval improved.
- She has kept her distance from Trump while signing conservative priorities (bail, voter ID, sanctuary-city ban, universal education freedom accounts) and vetoing some divisive bills.
- Warmington is weighed down by past lobbying for Purdue Pharma, which Ayotte attacks.
- Ayotte won in 2024 by 9.3 points; New Hampshire elects Republican governors despite voting D for president.
What Warmington is running on
- Abortion. Repeal the state’s 24-week abortion restriction and guarantee abortion rights.
- Education. Opposes education freedom account vouchers; public money for public schools.
- Guns. Universal background checks, extreme risk protection orders, gun-free school zones.
- Housing. Remove zoning barriers to build more housing.
- Energy. Expand solar net metering to lower energy costs; opposes greater fossil-fuel dependence.
- Trump. Says Ayotte failed to fight Trump on cuts to health care, food aid, housing money and on tariffs.
In Warmington’s own words
“With the costs of groceries, housing, and health care spiraling out of control, Granite Staters need a governor who will fight for them.”
The other candidates
Every race
See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.
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