Who is Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and what is Kreiss-Tomkins running on in the 2026 Alaska Governor race?
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) is narrowly ahead in a toss-up in the 2026 Alaska Governor race, with about a 50% chance of winning, according to Kalshi and Polymarket on Aug 30.
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Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is the Democratic candidate for Alaska governor. Former state House member from Sitka (37); finished first in the August 2026 top-four primary with 22.5%. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Chance of winning: Kalshi and Polymarket, Aug 30
- The seat: Open seat (Mike Dunleavy (R) term-limited); top-four ballot, ranked-choice general.
- Rating: Cook and Sabato rate it favorable to Republicans (per Newsweek, ~Aug 30, 2026).
- Polling: First round: Kreiss-Tomkins 40, Wilson 20, Bronson 14, English/Taylor 7, 19% other/undecided (AARP, 800 LV, released Sept 22, 2026); Kreiss-Tomkins wins final RCV round by 10 over Wilson. co/efficient (Sept 17): Kreiss-Tomkins 43, Wilson 20, Bronson 17, English/Taylor 6.
Why Kreiss-Tomkins is ahead
- Republican vote is split three ways (Wilson, Bronson, English) while Democrats consolidated after Tom Begich withdrew to back Kreiss-Tomkins.
- Kreiss-Tomkins leads first-round polls around 40 to 43% and wins the simulated RCV final round by 10 in the AARP poll.
- But Republicans together won ~49.5% of the primary vote, and the AARP pollster warned the undecided vote leans Republican, so second-choice transfers could favor Wilson.
- Voter dissatisfaction with term-limited Gov. Dunleavy and an aggressive, modern Kreiss-Tomkins campaign helped him to first place in the primary (22.5%).
What Kreiss-Tomkins is running on
- Education. Public money only for public schools; says falling confidence in schools drives young Alaskans to leave the state.
- Pensions / labor. Supported HB 78 to restore defined-benefit pensions for public employees.
- Wages. Supports the 2024 voter-passed minimum wage increase and paid sick leave, open to modifications.
- Data centers. Supports a moratorium on data centers until the legislature sets regulations.
- Governing style. Calls Dunleavy’s approach ‘combative, highly partisan and unproductive’ and promises bipartisan problem-solving.
In Kreiss-Tomkins’s own words
“If parents want to educate their children in a private or parochial school, by all means, that should be their right, but I don’t think public money should pay for that education.”
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