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Who is Greg Abbott and what is Abbott running on in the 2026 Texas Governor race?
Greg Abbott (R) is favored in the 2026 Texas Governor race, with about a 82% chance of winning, according to Kalshi and Polymarket on Sept 9.
Mary Spio
Deep Space Engineer
Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.
Greg Abbott is the Republican candidate for Texas governor, and the incumbent. Governor of Texas since 2015 (longest-serving sitting U.S. governor); former Texas Attorney General and state Supreme Court justice. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Texas GovernorAbbott favored
Greg Abbott R 82%Gina Hinojosa D 18%
Chance of winning: Kalshi and Polymarket, Sept 9
- The seat: Incumbent Greg Abbott (R) seeking a fourth term.
- Rating: Likely R (Cook, Inside Elections).
- Polling: Recent range: Hinojosa 49, Abbott 46 (Marist, Sept 17 to 20, 2026); Abbott 50, Hinojosa 46 (Texas Public Opinion Research, Sept 19 to 22, 2026).
Why Abbott is ahead
- Abbott is a three-term incumbent with a huge war chest ($67.2M cash on hand vs Hinojosa’s $3M, July 2026), and Democrats have not won statewide since 1990 (per Wikipedia).
- September polls are split, from Hinojosa +4 (Siena/ReconMR, Marist +3) to Abbott +8 (SoCal Strategies); Hinojosa now leads independents 65 to 27 in Siena’s poll.
- A Democratic-leaning national year and Paxton’s weak Senate campaign are dragging on the GOP ticket.
- Abbott is much better known (99% vs 65% familiarity) and leads white voters and men by wide margins; 62% of voters expect him to win.
What Abbott is running on
- Border security. Signature issue: Operation Lone Star, National Guard deployment, migrant busing and a state law making illegal entry a state crime.
- Education / school choice. Championed and signed 2025 education savings accounts giving families about $10,000 for private school costs.
- Abortion. Signed the 2021 Heartbeat Act and supports Texas’s near-total abortion ban.
- Guns. Opposes gun restrictions; signed permitless carry and resisted red-flag laws.
- Energy. Supports fossil fuels and opposes climate regulation; signed grid weatherization rules after 2021.
- THC. Vetoed a full THC ban in 2025, favoring age limits and testing instead.
The other candidates
Every race
See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.
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