Politics 1

Who is Darren Bailey and what is Bailey running on in the 2026 Illinois Governor race?

Darren Bailey (R) is a long shot in the 2026 Illinois Governor race, with about a 4% chance of winning, according to Kalshi and Polymarket on Oct 1.

Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.

Darren Bailey is the Republican candidate for Illinois governor. Downstate farmer (Clay County); former state representative (2019-2021) and state senator (2021-2023); 2022 GOP nominee for governor. Running mate: Cook County GOP chair Aaron Del Mar. Won the primary with 53.3%. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

The race

Illinois GovernorPritzker heavy favorite
JB Pritzker D 96%Darren Bailey R 4%

Chance of winning: Kalshi and Polymarket, Oct 1

  • The seat: Incumbent JB Pritzker (D) seeking third term (rematch of 2022 against Darren Bailey).
  • Rating: Solid D (Cook, Inside Elections).
  • Polling: Pritzker 54, Bailey 34 (Victory Research, Nov 20 to 24, 2025).

Why Bailey is behind

  • Illinois is solidly blue; Democrats have won all but one governor’s race since 2002.
  • It’s a rematch: Pritzker beat Bailey in 2022, when Bailey got 42% statewide and 24% in Cook County.
  • Incumbency plus Pritzker’s personal fortune and national profile as a leading Trump critic.
  • The only public poll shows a 20-point Pritzker lead.

What Bailey is running on

  • Taxes / cost of living. Says Illinois taxes are too high and people can’t afford to live and work in the state.
  • Government spending. Proposes a DOGE-style program to cut state spending.
  • Immigration. Backs more restrictive immigration policies.
  • Chicago outreach. Promises a campaign more focused on Chicago and the suburbs than in 2022.

In Bailey’s own words

“taxes are too high. Opportunity doesn’t exist. Our children are moving out of the state, and people just simply can’t afford to be able to live and work here.”

The other candidates

Every race

See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.

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