Politics 1

Who is Dan Cox and what is Cox running on in the 2026 Maryland Governor race?

Dan Cox (R) is a long shot in the 2026 Maryland Governor race, with about a 3% chance of winning, according to Kalshi and Polymarket on Oct 1.

Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.

Dan Cox is the Republican candidate for Maryland governor. Former Maryland state delegate and 2022 GOP nominee; strongly pro-Trump in 2022. Edged Ed Hale 43 to 36 in the June 2026 primary. Running mate: gun store owner Robert Krop. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

The race

Maryland GovernorMoore heavy favorite
Wes Moore D 97%Dan Cox R 3%

Chance of winning: Kalshi and Polymarket, Oct 1

  • The seat: Incumbent Wes Moore (D) seeking a 2nd term; rematch of 2022 vs Dan Cox.
  • Rating: Solid D (all major raters per Wikipedia, 2026).
  • Polling: Moore 58, Cox 31 (Zenith Research, 2026; exact date not confirmed).

Why Cox is behind

  • Maryland has about a 2-to-1 Democratic registration edge (2.2M D vs 1.02M R).
  • Moore beat Cox by 30+ points in 2022, and no Democratic incumbent governor of Maryland has lost since 1950.
  • Huge money gap: Moore raised $15.5M vs Cox’s about $242K through Aug 2026.
  • Moore’s soft spots are energy bills, taxes and fees (a $1.6B tax and fee package) and an approval rating near 48%, which Cox is targeting.

What Cox is running on

  • Taxes/fees. Pledges lower taxes and fees, including vehicle registration fees, and lower business tax rates.
  • Energy. Highlights soaring electric bills as a top concern.
  • Economy. Focuses on jobs for young people and stopping people from leaving Maryland.
  • Redistricting. Opposes Moore’s redistricting push as a distraction from state problems.
  • Governing. Promises to work with the Democratic General Assembly; has avoided talking about Trump this cycle.

In Cox’s own words

“This is about Maryland. It’s not about the national political scene.”

“We have become one of the hardest states to live in for affordability in America.”

The other candidates

Every race

See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.

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