Who is Ben Ray Luján and what is Luján running on in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race?
Ben Ray Luján (D) is the heavy favorite in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race, with about a 97% chance of winning, according to Kalshi and Polymarket on Sept 10.
Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.
Ben Ray Luján is the Democratic candidate for New Mexico U.S. Senate, and the incumbent. U.S. Senator since 2021; U.S. Representative 2009-2021; former NM Public Regulation Commissioner. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Chance of winning: Kalshi and Polymarket, Sept 10
- The seat: Incumbent Ben Ray Luján (D) seeking a second term.
- Rating: Solid D (Cook, Inside Elections).
- Polling: Luján 53, Marker 38 (Research & Polling Inc., Aug 21 to 28, 2026).
Why Luján is ahead
- Luján leads by 15 in the Albuquerque Journal’s Research & Polling survey.
- Republicans have not won a NM Senate race since 2002, and their nominee won only as a write-in after the sole ballot candidate was disqualified.
- Luján outraised Marker $8.3M to $33K as of June 30.
What Luján is running on
- Cost of living. Says the cost of everything and water are his top two issues.
- Border. Supports 100% screening, inbound and outbound, at the southern border.
- Water/data centers. Protect drinking and farm water from data center demand.
- Trump. Says Trump’s policies make NM families sicker and poorer.
- Elections. Says US voting is secure and Republicans mislead voters about it.
In Luján’s own words
“The two issues at the top of my list...is the cost of everything and water.”
The other candidates
Every race
See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.
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