Politics 1

Who is Aaron Guckian and what is Guckian running on in the 2026 Rhode Island Governor race?

Aaron Guckian (R) is a long shot in the 2026 Rhode Island Governor race, with about a 6% chance of winning, according to Kalshi on Sept 9.

Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.

Aaron Guckian is the Republican candidate for Rhode Island governor. Republican nominee for lieutenant governor in 2022; won the 2026 GOP governor primary 50.6%-49.4% over Elaine Pelino. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

The race

Rhode Island GovernorFoulkes heavy favorite
Helena Buonanno Foulkes D 91%Aaron Guckian R 6%Ken Block I 3%

Chance of winning: Kalshi, Sept 9

  • The seat: Open in effect: incumbent Dan McKee (D) lost the Sept 9, 2026 Democratic primary to Helena Foulkes.
  • Rating: Solid D (Cook, Inside Elections).
  • Polling: Foulkes 45, Block 21, Guckian 18 (Emerson/WPRI, Aug 21 to 22, 2026).

Why Guckian is behind

  • Republicans have not won statewide in Rhode Island since 2006.
  • Foulkes beat an unpopular incumbent 62.5%-37.5%, channelling anger over the Washington Bridge closure and cost of living.
  • Anti-Foulkes vote is split between Republican Guckian and independent Ken Block, both polling around 15 to 21%.
  • Guckian won his primary by under 300 votes and Elaine Pelino requested a recount, leaving the GOP weakened.

What Guckian is running on

  • Spending. Says state government is bloated and money can be found without raising taxes at first.
  • Taxes. Would accept a tax increase only in an emergency and if it goes to an appropriate place.
  • Infrastructure. Stresses a ‘done once, done right’ approach to building work, citing union plumbing standards.

In Guckian’s own words

“We’re so bloated right now, I think we could quickly find the money”

The other candidates

Every race

See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.

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