Who is Tom Cotton and what is Cotton running on in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race?

Tom Cotton is the Republican candidate for Arkansas U.S. Senate, and the incumbent. U.S. Senator since 2015 (Senate Republican Conference chair), former U.S. Representative and Army veteran; won the March 2026 primary with 81.6%. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

The race

• The seat: Incumbent Tom Cotton (R) seeking a third term.
• Rating: Solid R (Cook).
• Polling: Polls diverge: Shoffner 47.4, Cotton 44, Libertarian Jeff Wadlin 3 (Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College, Aug 11 to 12, 2026, 1,217 LV); Cotton 51, Shoffner 35 (J.L. Partners, released Aug 18, 2026); Cotton 46, Shoffner 43 (2040 Strategy Group, D, July 17 to 25, 2026).

Why Cotton is ahead

• Arkansas is deep red; Democrats have not won a Senate race there since 2008.
• Cotton has Trump’s endorsement and a large money edge ($13.6M raised and $9.9M cash vs Shoffner’s $2.3M and $864K, June 30, 2026).
• Shoffner’s case: the Hendrix poll had her ahead, leading independents 59 to 29, with 48% of voters strongly disapproving of Trump.
• Cotton’s camp points to J.L. Partners showing him up 16, which national coverage treated as evidence the Hendrix poll was an outlier.

What Cotton is running on

• Military. Investing in Arkansas’s military installations; casts Arkansas as a defense hub.
• Immigration / border. Border security and law enforcement support; opposes defunding immigration enforcement and benefits for undocumented immigrants.
• Energy / taxes. Attacks Shoffner as wanting to raise energy taxes.

The other candidates

• Hallie Shoffner (D)

Every race

See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.