Who is Julia Letlow and what is Letlow running on in the 2026 Louisiana Senate race?
Julia Letlow (R) is the heavy favorite in the 2026 Louisiana Senate race, with about a 93% chance of winning, according to Kalshi on Oct 1.
Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.
Julia Letlow is the Republican candidate for Louisiana U.S. Senate. U.S. Representative (LA-5) from Monroe and former university administrator; Trump-endorsed, she beat Treasurer John Fleming 57 to 43 in the June 2026 GOP runoff. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Chance of winning: Kalshi, Oct 1
- The seat: Open seat (incumbent Bill Cassidy lost the May 2026 GOP closed primary). ELECTION SYSTEM: in 2026 Louisiana held its first closed party primaries for Congress since 2010 (May 16, 2026; registered party members only, unaffiliated voters could pick one party’s primary), with a party runoff on June 27, 2026 when no one passed 50%. This replaced the old jungle primary. The general election is Nov 3, 2026 like other states.
- Polling: Letlow 48, Davis 44 (Hart Research Associates, Sept 17 to 19, 2026); earlier PPP July 21 to 22: Letlow 41, Davis 37, 22% undecided.
Why Letlow is ahead
- Louisiana is strongly Republican: Trump won it by about 29 points in 2024, and no Democrat has won a Senate race there since 2008.
- Letlow has the endorsements of Trump and Gov. Jeff Landry and raised about $6M vs Davis’s roughly $2M.
- Turnout gap in the June runoffs: 316,000+ GOP votes vs about 196,000 Democratic votes.
- Polls are closer than the state’s lean. Letlow faces questions over buying Meta stock after signing an NDA about Meta’s Richland Parish data center, and Trump’s approval is low.
What Letlow is running on
- Trump. Running as a close Trump ally who wants to work with him in the Senate.
- Agriculture. Promises to pass a catch-all bill aimed at helping farmers.
- Elections. Backs the SAVE Act voter-citizenship verification measure that Trump wants.
- Ethics (defense). Her campaign says she did not direct her Meta stock trades and that NDAs are common in economic development talks.
In Letlow’s own words
“I can’t wait to work with him (Trump) over on the Senate side.”
The other candidates
Every race
See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.
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