Politics 1

Who is Josh Green and what is Green running on in the 2026 Hawaii Governor race?

Josh Green (D) is the heavy favorite in the 2026 Hawaii Governor race, with about a 96% chance of winning, according to Kalshi and Polymarket on Oct 1.

Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.

Josh Green is the Democratic candidate for Hawaii governor, and the incumbent. Governor of Hawaii since 2022; previously lieutenant governor (2018-2022); physician. Running mate: Kauai Mayor Derek Kawakami. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

The race

Hawaii GovernorGreen heavy favorite
Josh Green D 96%Gary Cordery R 4%

Chance of winning: Kalshi and Polymarket, Oct 1

  • The seat: Incumbent Josh Green (D) seeking second term.
  • Rating: Solid D (Cook, Inside Elections).

Why Green is ahead

  • Hawaii is one of the most Democratic states; Republicans have not won the governorship since 2006.
  • Primary turnout gap: Green won 184,289 votes in the Aug 8 Democratic primary vs about 36,400 for Cordery in the GOP primary.
  • Money: Green had raised $3.5M with $2M on hand by July; Cordery about $300K, all spent, with $14K debt.
  • Incumbency and approval: Fox News reports a 56% approval rating for Green and credits his response to the Lahaina fire and Kona storms.

What Green is running on

  • Disaster recovery. Runs on his administration’s response to the 2023 Lahaina wildfire and the March Kona storms.
  • Taxes and budget. Tries to balance tax reform against keeping enough revenue for state services as federal funding is cut (editorial description).
  • Public health. Presents his medical background as a strength for public-health decisions (editorial description).
  • Governing style. Campaigns on steady, competent governance without divisive fights.

In Green’s own words

“We were very present, and I think pretty competent and compassionate in our response”

The other candidates

Every race

See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.

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