Politics 1

Who is James Talarico and what is Talarico running on in the 2026 Texas Senate race?

James Talarico (D) is leading in the 2026 Texas Senate race, with about a 64% chance of winning, according to Kalshi on Oct 1.

Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.

James Talarico is the Democratic candidate for Texas U.S. Senate. State representative (House District 50) since 2018; former public school teacher; won the Democratic primary outright over Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

The race

Texas SenateTalarico leads
James Talarico D 64%Ken Paxton R 36%

Chance of winning: Kalshi, Oct 1

  • The seat: Open seat in effect: incumbent John Cornyn (R) lost the May 26, 2026 GOP runoff to Ken Paxton.
  • Rating: Likely R (major forecasters, as of June 2026).
  • Polling: Talarico 50, Paxton 44 (Marist, Sept 17 to 20, 2026, RV); Emerson Sept 12 to 14: Talarico 47, Paxton 46.

Why Talarico is ahead

  • Talarico leads most September polls, including Marist +6, AARP and Univision +4 to 5 and Emerson +1, and wins independents.
  • Paxton carries heavy baggage: the 2023 impeachment (acquitted), ethics and legal troubles, and GOP divisions after he ousted Cornyn.
  • Talarico has a big money edge ($40.3M raised vs $7.6M), and Republicans have committed more than $60M in emergency ad spending to shore up Paxton.
  • Texas’s Republican lean still keeps it close: 52% of voters in Marist’s poll expect Paxton to win despite trailing.

What Talarico is running on

  • Cost of living. Proposes higher wages, expanded tax credits and tougher action against corporations over prices.
  • Healthcare. Backs an affordable not-for-profit health option for every American; sponsored a $25 insulin cap and Canadian drug importation bills.
  • Abortion. Calls Texas’s abortion ban dangerous and supports protecting abortion and contraception access.
  • Education. Opposes using tax dollars for private school vouchers.
  • Immigration. Supports legal status for long-term immigrants, spouses and Dreamers alongside deporting criminals and traffickers.
  • Taxes. Would close billionaire tax loopholes and raise corporate tax rates.
  • Guns. Backs universal background checks; voted against permitless carry.

The other candidates

Every race

See every Senate and governor race on the ballot, with each candidate’s chance of winning: the 2026 midterms at a glance.

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