Who is James Talarico and what is Talarico running on in the 2026 Texas Senate race?
James Talarico (D) is leading in the 2026 Texas Senate race, with about a 64% chance of winning, according to Kalshi on Oct 1.
James Talarico is the Democratic candidate for Texas U.S. Senate. State representative (House District 50) since 2018; former public school teacher; won the Democratic primary outright over Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
- The seat: Open seat in effect: incumbent John Cornyn (R) lost the May 26, 2026 GOP runoff to Ken Paxton.
- Rating: Likely R (major forecasters, as of June 2026).
- Polling: Talarico 50, Paxton 44 (Marist, Sept 17 to 20, 2026, RV); Emerson Sept 12 to 14: Talarico 47, Paxton 46.
Why Talarico is ahead
- Talarico leads most September polls, including Marist +6, AARP and Univision +4 to 5 and Emerson +1, and wins independents.
- Paxton carries heavy baggage: the 2023 impeachment (acquitted), ethics and legal troubles, and GOP divisions after he ousted Cornyn.
- Talarico has a big money edge ($40.3M raised vs $7.6M), and Republicans have committed more than $60M in emergency ad spending to shore up Paxton.
- Texas’s Republican lean still keeps it close: 52% of voters in Marist’s poll expect Paxton to win despite trailing.
What Talarico is running on
- Cost of living. Proposes higher wages, expanded tax credits and tougher action against corporations over prices.
- Healthcare. Backs an affordable not-for-profit health option for every American; sponsored a $25 insulin cap and Canadian drug importation bills.
- Abortion. Calls Texas’s abortion ban dangerous and supports protecting abortion and contraception access.
- Education. Opposes using tax dollars for private school vouchers.
- Immigration. Supports legal status for long-term immigrants, spouses and Dreamers alongside deporting criminals and traffickers.
- Taxes. Would close billionaire tax loopholes and raise corporate tax rates.
- Guns. Backs universal background checks; voted against permitless carry.
The other candidates
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