Who is Dan Osborn and what is Osborn running on in the 2026 Nebraska Senate race?
Dan Osborn (I) is the underdog in the 2026 Nebraska Senate race, with about a 28% chance of winning, according to Kalshi and Polymarket on Oct 1.
Answer from Mary's digital twin. Checkmark turns Green once she confirms it.
Dan Osborn is the independent candidate for Nebraska U.S. Senate. Former steamfitter and union leader who led the 2021 Kellogg’s strike in Omaha; independent 2024 Senate candidate who nearly beat Deb Fischer; says he will not caucus with either party. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The race
Chance of winning: Kalshi and Polymarket, Oct 1
- The seat: Incumbent Republican Pete Ricketts (appointed 2023, won 2024 special) seeking a full term; independent Dan Osborn is running.
- Polling: Osborn 47, Ricketts 47 (Impact Research, Aug 9 to 13, 2026, likely Osborn/Dem-aligned internal); Tavern Research May 8 to 11: Osborn 47, Ricketts 42.
Why Osborn is behind
- Nebraska’s strong GOP lean: Trump won by 20+ points and Republicans outnumber Democrats roughly 620K to 328K in registration.
- Ricketts’ campaign says Osborn’s internal polls were off by 12 points in 2024.
- Osborn is a proven over-performer: he lost to Deb Fischer by under 7 points in 2024 in a Trump +20 state.
- Ricketts has been weak on favorability (38/45 in a 2025 Change Research poll).
What Osborn is running on
- Independence. Plans to stay independent and not caucus with either party.
- Tariffs. Would support Congress taking back control of tariffs (Nov 2025).
- Immigration. Says ICE needs the same standards as the rest of law enforcement; has called illegal immigration harmful to American workers.
- Iran. Concerned about US involvement in an unpopular conflict with Iran (Mar 2026).
- Social Security / Medicare. Attacks billionaires for cutting Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid; wants to remove the cap on Social Security contributions.
- Labor. Supports the PRO Act and a higher federal minimum wage.
- Abortion. Opposes extreme national abortion bans.
In Osborn’s own words
“This poll is encouraging and matches the frustration I hear every day from Nebraskans.”
“I plan on remaining an independent”
The other candidates
Every race
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