Build a 3 pick of Golden State versus Houston Rockets

Golden State Warriors (8-3) visit the Houston Rockets (8-3) at Toyota Center tonight at 9:30 p.m. ET. Houston is a 6.5-point home favorite. Same record, almost the same net rating, different zip code. Here are the 3 picks.

Pick 1: Warriors +6.5

Strip away the logos and these clubs are twins. Houston's net rating is +9.4, fourth in the league; Golden State's is +9.2, fifth. A 6.5-point spread is asking home court to do a lot of heavy lifting when the talent gap is that thin. The market already nudged Houston from -5.5 to -6.5, which means sharp money has pushed this number up, not down toward Houston.

The underdog has covered 6 of the last 7 games between the Warriors and Rockets. The Warriors have outright won their last three games as an underdog. And they're coming in hot: the Warriors are building on an eight-game win streak.

The injury picture complicates things. Brandon Williams (hamstring), Moses Moody (knee), Jimmy Butler III (knee), and Kristaps Porzingis (illness) are all out for Golden State. That's real depth gone. But multiple models put the Warriors' cover probability at 54.5% with the +6.5. Multiple outlets across the board land here. The number is too big for a team this close in quality.

Pick: Warriors +6.5

Pick 2: Over the total (220.5–222.5)

The Warriors are second in the NBA in scoring at 120.4 points per game, while the Rockets are 13th at 115.5. Golden State plays fast and runs up totals. Warriors games have gone over the point total 54.5% of the time, 6 out of 11 games with a set total. Houston's games have gone over the total in 6 out of 11 opportunities as well.

After 10,000 simulations, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total. Computer projections across multiple sites cluster around 226 total points, well clear of any posted number. Two of the fastest-scoring offenses in the West, one game, one night. The math points up.

Pick: Over 220.5

Pick 3: Stephen Curry Over his points line

Curry is averaging 30.6 points per game while shooting 50.3% from the field and 45.7% from beyond the arc to start this season. That's an all-time heater by any measure. Screens and quick releases could open the floor for him, though the Rockets have held opponents to 106.4 points per game. Houston's defense is real. But Curry in a rivalry game, on national TV, against a defense that will dare him to beat them from deep? That's his favorite invitation.

Curry is a solid prop target on Wednesday across the board. With Golden State shorthanded around him, more usage flows his way, not less. Take him over whatever his points line is posted at.

Pick: Curry Over points

The 3-pick card: Warriors +6.5 / Over the total / Curry Over points. All three picks live and die on the same idea: Golden State is better than 6.5 points worse than Houston right now, and Curry is going to remind you of that tonight.