Who is the most likely democratic presidential candidate for 2028? Do the republicans still have all 3 houses?

Who controls Congress right now

Heading into the 2026 general elections, Republicans control both chambers of Congress. They hold a 53–45 majority in the Senate, and in the House they hold a 218–214 majority. That is a thin margin in both chambers, which matters a lot for how bills actually move.

The November 2026 midterms, which happen on November 3, will determine whether that holds. Democrats hold a substantial lead in the generic congressional ballot, averaging around seven to nine points in multiple polls, which has strengthened expectations for a Democratic gain, with prediction markets putting the odds of Democrats winning the House above 90%. So the picture could look very different by early 2027.

Why Trump has been able to pass so much

This is where the mechanics matter. Most people picture legislation as needing 60 votes in the Senate to get past something called the filibuster, which is essentially a stalling tactic where the minority party refuses to let a vote happen. The Senate's rules require most bills to get a supermajority of 60 out of 100 senators to overcome a filibuster and pass. Republicans hold 53 seats, well short of that.

The workaround is a process called budget reconciliation. Think of it as a special lane in Congress that only applies to bills affecting taxes, spending, or the national debt limit. Budget reconciliation is a legislative process that can be used to override the filibuster and expedite the approval of a package of legislation in Congress that changes spending, revenues, or the debt limit. The process requires only a simple majority in the Senate: generally 51 votes, or 50 if the Vice President breaks a tie.

The biggest example of this so far is the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Republicans chose to use the budget reconciliation process, which allowed them to avoid the 60-vote Senate filibuster, carrying importance as they hold only 53 seats out of 100 in the Senate. The Senate approved the bill 51–50, with Vice President JD Vance casting a tiebreaking vote, and the House passed it 218–214. This was a major legislative package passed through budget reconciliation, signed into law on July 4, 2025.

The catch is that reconciliation has limits. It can only be used on legislation tied to the federal budget, so things like immigration enforcement rules or social policy changes cannot simply be rammed through the same way. That is why not every Trump priority has sailed through, and why some of the most contentious fights have stalled.

Think of it like a building with two rooms. Congress is the whole building, the entire legislative branch of the US federal government, the part that writes and passes laws. Inside it sit two separate chambers, or houses. That two-chamber setup is why people call it a bicameral legislature, from the Latin for "two rooms."

The Senate

The Senate has 100 senators, with two from each state regardless of how big or small that state is. Wyoming gets two, California gets two. That equal-state design was a deliberate choice to protect smaller states from being drowned out. Senators serve six-year terms, with elections staggered so roughly one-third of the Senate is up for reelection every two years. That staggering is why the Senate is sometimes called a "continuous body" — most of it carries over every election.

The Senate has unique powers, including confirming presidential appointments, ratifying treaties, and conducting impeachment trials. It is also where the 60-vote threshold we discussed earlier — the one that makes passing most legislation hard — applies most sharply.

The House of Representatives

The House has 435 voting representatives, with the number per state determined by population. So California sends dozens of representatives, while Wyoming sends one. Representatives serve two-year terms, meaning the entire House is up for election every two years. That shorter cycle keeps them more directly answerable to voters.

The House initiates revenue-related legislation — meaning all tax bills must start there — and has the sole power to impeach federal officials. The Senate then holds the trial if an impeachment comes over.

How a bill actually becomes law

A bill must pass both the House and the Senate and then be signed by the President to become law. Both chambers have to agree on the exact same version of the text. If they pass different versions, representatives from both sides meet to hammer out a single version, then each chamber votes again. Only after all of that does it go to the President's desk.

So when you hear "Congress passed a bill," that means both the House and the Senate voted yes. When you hear specifically "the Senate blocked it," it means it cleared the House but died in the other room. They are related, but they are not the same thing.

In a CNN interview with Jake Tapper, conducted during a fly-fishing trip in Montana, Newsom made a striking pledge: "I wouldn't run if she ran." His reasoning was blunt. He and Kamala Harris share too much of the same voter base, both being California Democrats, and a race between them would be, in his words, "mutual assured destruction" that would only benefit everyone else in the field.

So this is a conditional withdrawal, not a full one. He has not formally filed a campaign, and he has been openly preparing for a possible run: traveling to South Carolina, the first state to hold a Democratic primary, and launching a high-profile podcast. His California governor's term ends in early 2027 due to term limits, so the timing lines up.

The key variable is Harris herself. She told a British outlet "I am not done" and said at an Al Sharpton event earlier this year that she was "thinking about" a third run. As of now she has made no formal decision, saying in July she is focused on the midterms.

So the picture as of today is: Newsom is in if Harris is out, and out if Harris is in. Whether that pledge holds once the midterms settle and the field clarifies is the real question to watch.

Everything starts with November. Jon Ossoff is locked in one of the most competitive Senate races in the country, running against Georgia Representative Mike Collins in a state that has repeatedly gone Republican at the presidential level. He has said he is not interested in running for president and is focused strictly on winning reelection this fall. That is not a dodge. It is the only honest answer. A senator who loses his own state cannot credibly ask the country to trust him with more.

Win, and win convincingly

It is one thing to hold to "zero interest" in mid-2026, and another to hold it if Georgia's numbers keep climbing nationally and in early states through the fall, especially if he wins reelection by a strong margin. A narrow squeaker in Georgia tells a different story than a decisive win. Democrats have to cross-persuade Republican-leaning voters to win a national primary, and a senator who does that in a red-leaning state is walking proof he can do it elsewhere. His campaign has framed him as experienced at coalition building, pointing to a competitive run in what had been a ruby-red district as early as 2017.

Turn the Senate record into a national argument

Talk of Ossoff as a presidential candidate has picked up steam as Democrats watched his videos and speeches go viral, with one Democratic strategist describing him as "speaking truth to power" and meeting a need for "somebody who fights hard and who understands how to cut through the noise." Viral moments are not a substitute for a record, but they prove the communication instinct is there.

The record underneath the viral clips is real. He fought to pass a bipartisan disaster relief package that included $21 billion in agricultural disaster funding for farmers recovering from Hurricane Helene. His constituent services team has helped nearly 7,000 individual Georgians solve issues with the federal government, recovering over $60 million for Georgia families. That is the kind of unglamorous, ground-level work that builds durable trust, not just followers.

Close the lane vulnerability

Some moderate-leaning votes, including support for the Laken Riley Act, are exactly the kind of record a rival lane would use to make the case that he is not progressive enough. He will need to either own those votes confidently with a coherent argument, or build enough goodwill with progressive voters that the votes are forgiven. He cannot ignore them.

His rise has come against a backdrop of intense Democratic infighting between progressives and centrists, and that fight will define what the 2028 primary rewards. The candidate who can hold both lanes, or at least not be disqualified by either, survives the primary. The one who gets boxed into one lane needs that lane to dominate, and that is a riskier bet.

The simplest version of what he needs to do: win Georgia, deliver something tangible for people beyond Georgia, and build a coalition that does not belong entirely to one faction of the party. The 2028 conversation takes care of itself after that.