Who are the Ballon d'Or prospects for 2026?

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Harry Kane is the clear favorite at -350, 3 days before Monday's ceremony at the London Palladium. Lamine Yamal is next at +225, then Kylian Mbappé at +1800, Lionel Messi at +2500, and Rodri and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia at +4000.

Mary Spio

Deep Space Engineer

Background

The 2026 Ballon d'Or is the 70th annual ceremony, presented by France Football, recognizing the best footballers of the 2025–26 season. The ceremony takes place on October 26 at the London Palladium. For the first time it is being held in London, with the choice of venue paying tribute to Sir Stanley Matthews, the award's inaugural winner 70 years ago, and co-organized with UEFA since 2024. The question on everyone's mind: who will succeed 2025 winners Aitana Bonmatí and Ousmane Dembélé?

The Top Contenders, From Top to Lowest

Ranked by the best odds on offer on October 22.

The Top 10 at a Glance

Player	Odds	Chance
1. Harry Kane	-350	78%
2. Lamine Yamal	+225	31%
3. Kylian Mbappé	+1800	5%
4. Lionel Messi	+2500	4%
5. Rodri	+4000	2%
6. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia	+4000	2%
7. Michael Olise	+6600	1.5%
8. Ousmane Dembélé	+12500	0.8%
9. Fabián Ruiz	+15000	0.7%
10. Pau Cubarsí	+15000	0.7%

What the Numbers Mean

These are betting odds written the American way. Each one tells you how much a bet pays and, roughly, how likely the bookmakers think that player is to win.

A minus sign means the favorite. The number is what you would bet to win $100. Harry Kane at -350 means you bet $350 to win $100. Bookmakers make you risk a lot for a small win because they think he is very likely to win.
A plus sign means an outsider. The number is what a $100 bet would win. Lionel Messi at +2500 means a $100 bet wins $2,500. The bigger the number, the bigger the long shot.
The chances add up to more than 100% because bookmakers build in a margin for themselves. The picture is still clear: Kane is the strong favorite, Yamal is the only real challenger, and everyone else is a long shot.

To turn odds into a chance yourself:

Minus odds: divide the number by the number plus 100. For -350, that is 350 ÷ 450 = 78%.
Plus odds: divide 100 by the number plus 100. For +2500, that is 100 ÷ 2,600 = 4%.

1. Harry Kane (Bayern Munich, England): -350

Season: 61 goals in all competitions in 2025-26, a second European Golden Shoe and Germany's Footballer of the Year.
Trophies: Bayern Munich won the Bundesliga, the DFB-Pokal (the German cup) and the Supercup.
World Cup: 6 goals before England lost to Argentina in the semifinal.

2. Lamine Yamal (Barcelona, Spain): +225

Lamine Yamal warming up with Barcelona — **Lamine Yamal** warming up with **Barcelona**

Season: 24 goals and 18 assists in all competitions, as Barcelona won La Liga for the second year in a row.
World Cup: a winner with Spain, who beat Argentina in the final.
Why he could win: big trophies with both club and country.

3. Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid, France): +1800

Kylian Mbappé with the European Golden Shoe at the Bernabéu — **Kylian Mbappé** with the **European Golden Shoe** **at the** Bernabéu

World Cup: the Golden Boot, the award for the top scorer, with 10 goals, his second. He is now the tournament's all-time leading scorer with 22 goals in 22 games.
Season: 42 goals for Real Madrid.
The catch: no trophy with Real Madrid, and France finished fourth.

4. Lionel Messi (Inter Miami, Argentina): +2500

World Cup: 8 goals and 4 assists as Argentina reached the final, where they lost to Spain.
Club: led Inter Miami to their first MLS Cup.

5. Rodri (Barcelona, Spain): +4000

World Cup: the winning captain, and the Golden Ball, the award for the best player of the tournament.
Club: joined Barcelona from Manchester City in August 2026. He won the Ballon d'Or in 2024.

6. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (PSG, Georgia): +4000

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, pictured in his Napoli days before his move to PSG — **Khvicha Kvaratskhelia**, pictured in his Napoli days before his move to **PSG**

Season: 19 goals and 11 assists, including 10 in the Champions League, as PSG won it for the second year in a row.
The catch: Georgia did not qualify for the World Cup.

7 to 10: The Outsiders

Odds from September 29, the latest for these players:

Michael Olise (Bayern Munich, France): +6600. 22 goals and 31 assists, and the most assists at the World Cup, 7.
Ousmane Dembélé (PSG, France), the 2025 winner: +12500. 20 goals as PSG won Ligue 1 and the Champions League, and 6 at the World Cup.
Fabián Ruiz (PSG, Spain), the dark horse: +15000. He won both the Champions League and the World Cup this year.
Pau Cubarsí (Barcelona, Spain): +15000. A key part of Spain's World Cup win and Barcelona's La Liga title.

The Central Debate

The central question is how voters balance individual performance, club achievements and the impact of the World Cup. Kane has the goal-scoring numbers. Rodri and Yamal have the winner's medal. Mbappé has the Golden Boot but no silverware. Picking one above the others is hardly straightforward.

One dark horse worth watching: Fabián Ruiz of PSG and Spain is the only player this year to win both the Champions League and the World Cup. His odds are long at +3,500, but the trophy argument is real.

The ceremony is Monday, October 26, live on DAZN.

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