Politics

What is happening in Sudan? Who is behind it?

Sudan is in its fourth year of a civil war that has become the world's worst humanitarian disaster, pitting the country's official military against a powerful paramilitary force, with outside nations quietly fueling both sides.

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The two sides

What began in April 2023 as a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has become the world's worst humanitarian disaster. The SAF is Sudan's regular army, navy, and air force, the country's internationally recognized military. The RSF is a separate armed force that grew out of the Janjaweed, a militia used by former dictator Omar al-Bashir to suppress uprisings in Darfur. The RSF evolved from the Janjaweed militia, an Arab-majority armed group funded by Bashir to suppress southern Sudanese rebels and fight in the Darfur War. The RSF's commander is known by the name Hemedti.

Their dispute over how, and whether, to fold the RSF into the regular army turned a political crisis into a civil war that has since fragmented into a technologically driven conflict of drones, sieges and shifting regional fronts.

Where things stand on the ground

The front lines have stabilised into a rough partition. The army, after recapturing Khartoum and the central belt through 2025, holds the centre and east, including the capital, the Red Sea hub of Port Sudan (seat of the internationally recognised government) and much of the Gezira and Blue Nile regions. The RSF consolidated the west after its bloodiest victory of the war: the capture of El Fasher on 26 October 2025, ending a two-year siege of the army's last stronghold in Darfur.

UN investigators concluded that the RSF's siege and capture of the city bore "the hallmarks of genocide", alongside documented war crimes and crimes against humanity.

The war's most dangerous point right now is El Obeid, the army-held capital of North Kordofan and the strategic hinge between central Sudan and Darfur. The RSF has sought to reimpose a blockade, and the UN has issued a "red alert" over what one official called a "functional siege": more than 83,000 displaced civilians have taken shelter in the city, and nearly 400,000 people in its vicinity face food shortages. Verified footage has placed RSF fighters within 40 kilometres of the city, and satellite imagery shows the military building a defensive earth berm around it.

Drone warfare now defines the conflict. According to the United Nations, more than 1,000 civilians were killed in drone strikes in the first five months of 2026 alone.

Who is behind it, beyond Sudan's borders

This war has not stayed inside Sudan's borders. A new report by the UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan found that foreign recruitment and external support networks are fuelling the brutal conflict, calling for accountability. This action is strengthening the military capabilities of the warring parties and enabling increasingly sophisticated military operations with devastating consequences for civilians.

The United Arab Emirates is fueling the violence and stretching out the war by supplying weapons, mercenaries, and other resources to the RSF. The involvement of the Wagner Group and foreign military influence, notably from the UAE, has deepened the rivalry at the core of Sudan's crisis.

The human cost

A total of 8.6 million people have fled the war since it began in April 2023. Sudan is the world's largest hunger crisis. Famine has been declared in at least five places, including in Darfur and Nuba. Over 26.4 million people are trapped in a spiral of deteriorating food security, largely because of the fighting between the SAF and RSF.

More than 65% of the country's main hospitals are closed or destroyed. Children continue to bear the brunt of a war that is becoming increasingly deadly, with at least 330 children reported killed or injured in the first six months of 2026 alone.

International aid is only 40% funded for all of 2026, leaving millions of Sudanese facing hunger and disease. The world has largely looked away, which is the thing that makes this situation different from almost every other conflict getting attention right now.

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