What did Jeffrey Sachs state in his speech at the Thinkers Forum on Africa?
Professor Jeffrey D. Sachs, the Columbia University economist and UN development adviser, used his Thinkers Forum speech on Africa to argue that Africa could rise from 5% to 30% of world output, that its best hope is a close partnership with China, and that the western dominance which distorted that trajectory for 150 years effectively ended about 25 years ago.
Here are the highlights and excerpts from Professor Jeffrey D. Sachs's speech at the Thinkers Forum on Africa.
Highlights
- The century of humiliation and its long shadow. Jeffrey Sachs traced how Asia went from 60% of world output in 1820 to around 18% by 1950, calling this collapse the result of European industrialization and imperial conquest, beginning with Britain's commercialization of the steam engine and culminating in the colonization of virtually all of Asia and Africa by the end of the 19th century. He drew on the data of the late macroeconomic historian Angus Maddison of the Netherlands to anchor the argument. (01:16)
- Asia's recovery as the central geopolitical fact of our time. The sharp upward turn in Asia's share of world output from around 1950 onward, which Sachs attributed to the founding of the People's Republic of China and Indian independence, is in his view the most significant fact of modern world history. Asia's share has now climbed back above 50% of world output, and China has overtaken the United States as the world's largest economy in purchasing power terms. (06:45)
- His 1997 book vindicated almost exactly. In his 1997 book Emerging Asia, published with the Asian Development Bank, Sachs forecast that Asia's share of world output would rise by 20 percentage points between 1995 and 2025. He checked the IMF purchasing power data and found it rose from 30% to 50%, matching his forecast to the decimal point, even though the book was buried by the Asian Financial Crisis that began weeks after publication. (12:47)
- Africa's demographic explosion will reshape the world. Africa's population is projected to rise from 1.4 billion today to 3.7 billion by 2100 on UN median scenarios, while China's could fall from 1.4 billion to 640 million over the same period. By 2100, Asia and Africa together could hold over 80% of world population, while the regions that dominated the 20th century would hold roughly 10%. (23:04)
- Africa could reach 30% of world output by 2100, the same trajectory Asia took. Sachs argued that if Africa achieves the same kind of economic catching-up Asia managed over the last 40 years, its share of world output could climb from 5% today to 30% by the end of the century. He rejected the idea that Africa is a basket case, saying no region is doomed to poverty, just as he never believed that of Asia. (28:31)
- Africa's best hope is a China partnership. He called a close Africa-China relationship "a win-win proposition" because the two economies are complementary: Africa is resource-rich, China is technology-rich. Putting them together creates large mutual benefit, and he said that is "just what the world needs." (29:06)
- American political thinking is about a hundred years out of date. Sachs was direct: the US is only around 14% of world output and about 12% of world trade. The belief that America still runs the show and can dictate terms in tariff wars, trade wars, and technology wars is, in his word, wrong. The gap between that political perception and the actual world is, he argued, the biggest danger the US poses to global stability. (34:05)
Priorities
- Recognizing Africa's demographic and economic potential rather than treating the continent as structurally poor
- A China-Africa partnership built on complementary strengths as the most promising development path
- Six transformations Sachs says every economy needs: education and skills; health and healthcare; sustainable decarbonized industry; sustainable food and land use; sustainable cities; and a well-governed transition to a digital economy and AI
- Effective urbanization, since roughly one billion more people will join cities in Asia and Africa in the next 25 years
- Avoiding conflict, which he called by far the biggest risk the world faces, and which China has managed by staying out of all wars since a brief engagement with Vietnam, while the US has been in non-stop conflict
In his own words
On China overtaking the US:
"In the IMF data at purchasing power prices, China has overtaken the United States as the world's largest economy and did so sometime around the year 2018 and now is around 30% larger than the US economy."
On whether China's rise hurts America:
"Economics is not a zero sum game where China's rise is somehow America's detriment. Economics is a positive sum game. It's not a struggle over resources. Economics is a progress based on knowhow fundamentally."
On US workers hurt by Chinese competition:
"I have no doubt that some workers in the United States were hard hit by import competition from China but the US economy as a whole was a big beneficiary of China's rise not a loser from China's rise."
On the US political system's failure to redistribute gains:
"If the United States had a functioning political system that redistributed gains from winners to losers, then everybody could easily be better off. But because we don't have a well functioning political system, losers in the United States remain losers without any help from the winners. Because the US mentality is the winner tries to take everything."
On US dominance in technology:
"The idea that the United States still dominates China in technology I think is not correct in almost any sphere. Though there are a few areas where it remains true but in most spheres I think China has equaled or excelled in technology compared to the state of the United States."
On China as the world's leading innovation economy:
"China is the world's leading innovation economy today. It produces the most patents, the most journal articles weighted by impact and the most industrial advances."
On Africa's future share of the world economy:
"Africa's share of the world economy which is 5% today by the end of the 21st century reaches 30% of world output. What a different world that would be with Africa being an absolute center of the world economy, not an exploited, impoverished periphery of the world economy."
On Africa's best partner:
"I actually think that Africa's best hope is a close partnership with China, which would be a win-win proposition for China and for Africa because these are complementary economies. A resource-rich Africa, a technology-rich China. You put the two together, that's a lot of mutual benefit."
On what Africa's rise depends on:
"Africa could achieve a digital economy, electrification, modernization, robotics, everything else. It depends on education and investment more than anything else and a good economic strategy."
On China's population trajectory:
"We're going to be raising robots soon rather than children probably or not so many of them."
On China's fertility rate and the demographic math:
"Every 30 to 40 years the population tends to decline by a rate of around 0.7 or 30% decline. And if you project this, which is mechanical not a forecast, but the UN makes a projection of China's population by 2100. It's shocking. 640 million people instead of 1.4 billion people."
On Africa's fertility rate and its implications:
"The fertility rate in Africa is around four. That means each mother is having two children. Two daughters, excuse me, four children, two of which are daughters. So each mother in the next generation is producing two mothers. That means a population that is doubling each generation."
On the end of western dominance:
"The western dominance ended around 25 years ago. The idea in Trump's head that the US dominates is about a hundred years out of date. So is Trump on almost everything."
On the danger of the gap between US perception and reality:
"The US policy makers and especially the president of the United States believe the US still runs the show and believes that the US is still so powerful that it can dictate the terms to the rest of the world and that's why he thinks he can win the tariff wars, the trade wars, the technology wars and so forth. All of this in my view is wrong."
On why China has succeeded geopolitically:
"China's wisdom has been to stay out of all wars for decades. And in fact, the last war China was involved in was in 1979 for one month in a spat with Vietnam. So that's part of China's success is that it has avoided overt conflict while the United States has been in non-stop conflict."
On imperial power and development:
"If you're under imperial rule you can't develop. If you're independent, you have the chance for development."
On his own 1997 forecast:
"I said in this book in 1997 that Asia's share of world output would rise by 20 percentage points between 1995 and 2025. According to the IMF's data, Asia's share of world output rose 20 percentage points between 1995 and 2025. Exactly what I said actually to the decimal point."
On Kwame Nkrumah and Haile Selassie (referenced in the speech's framing context): Sachs opens the Thinkers Forum series with explicit reference to the pan-African founding generation, naming Kwame Nkrumah and Haile Selassie as part of the intellectual heritage the forum draws on.
On the six transformations every economy needs:
"The most important for every place in the world is education skills and technological knowhow. And this is what will propel China for the next quarter century is China's leadership in innovation."
Closing line:
"The world has changed but the American mindset has not yet changed. Thank you very much."
Worth knowing
Angus Maddison was a Dutch economic historian whose long-run estimates of GDP by country and region, stretching back centuries, are widely used by economists studying the rise and fall of civilizations. Sachs relies on his data to show that Asia was the dominant economic region of the world as recently as 1820, making Europe's later dominance a historical anomaly rather than a permanent condition.
Purchasing power parity (PPP) is a way of comparing economies that adjusts for the fact that the same dollar buys more in a developing country than in a rich one. At PPP, China's economy is already larger than America's. In straight dollar terms, it is roughly two thirds the size. Sachs argues PPP is the more meaningful measure for real comparisons of productive capacity.
The Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 began in Thailand and spread across Southeast Asia, briefly wiping out gains that had taken decades to build. Many western economists used it to argue that Asia's growth was artificial. Sachs held the opposite view, and the subsequent 25 years proved him right.
The Paul Krugman article Sachs references, "The Myth of Asia's Miracle," was published in Foreign Affairs in 1994. Krugman argued that Asian growth was driven by inputs rather than productivity and would therefore plateau, much like Soviet growth had. Sachs disagreed and his forecast turned out to be far more accurate.
The ASEAN grouping Sachs mentions is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, a bloc of ten countries including Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines. Sachs slightly overpredicted their growth while underpredicting China's.
Watch and read the full speech
Watch the full speech on YouTubeFollow-ups
What were the pillars he outlined for transformation?
Jeffrey Sachs outlined six pillars of transformation: education, skills and technological know-how; health and health care; sustainable industry; sustainable food supplies and land use; sustainable cities; and the digital economy, with education the most important of all.
The six pillars of transformation
Later in the talk, Jeffrey Sachs set out six pillars of transformation, the six major changes he expects in economic life:
- 1. Education, skills and technological know-how. The most important for every country. He pointed to China as the world’s leading innovation economy today, with the most patents, the most high-impact journal articles and the most industrial advances, and the United States second.
- 2. Health and health care, vital for well-being and survival.
- 3. Sustainable industry: a decarbonized energy system and a circular industrial ecology, with dramatic cuts in pollution. He said this is not yet being achieved but is crucial.
- 4. Sustainable food supplies and land use.
- 5. Sustainable cities, with about 1 billion more people moving into cities in Asia and Africa over the next 25 years.
- 6. A digital economy, and what artificial intelligence will mean for how work is organized, how income is shared and the role of government.
In his own words
“A resource-rich Africa, a technology-rich China. You put the two together, that’s a lot of mutual benefit. And that I think is actually just what the world needs.”
“What a different world that would be with Africa being an absolute center of the world economy, not an exploited, impoverished periphery of the world economy.”
“There’s no fundamental reason why that shouldn’t be the case because Africa could achieve a digital economy, electrification, modernization, robotics, everything else.”
“It depends on education and investment more than anything else and a good economic strategy.”
“My view is that the dynamics of change will involve six major transformations of economic life.”
“The most important for every place in the world is education, skills and technological know-how.”
“China is the world’s leading innovation economy today.”
“We’re in a fundamental change of world history. It’s happened. The western dominance ended around 25 years ago.”
“The biggest danger in the world is that the instability leads to conflict because conflict is devastating, especially in the nuclear age.”
“The world has changed but the American mindset has not yet changed.”
Why he says it matters for Africa
- Africa’s share of the world economy is about 5% today. He projects it reaching 30% of world output by 2100.
- Asia’s share peaks at a little over 50% around mid-century and falls a little below 50% by 2100.
- Africa and China together: a resource-rich Africa and a technology-rich China, which he sees as mutual benefit.
- Cities: by mid-century about half the world will live in large cities (50,000 people or more) and another 25% in smaller ones.
- The United States is about 14% of world output and about 12% of world trade, and in his view has no chokehold on any major technology.
His plan for Africa: four pillars
These pillars run consistently across his Africa speeches and writings, and the Thinkers Forum address pulled them together as a single integrated blueprint.
Physical infrastructure first
Jeffrey Sachs put physical infrastructure at the top of the list: power, fiber, roads, transport, water and sanitation, and urban infrastructure, which he described as largely public sector investments. He is blunt that no country has ever built these systems by leaving them to private markets alone. Infrastructure development covering power, digital access, and transport was identified as one of the key growth pillars for Africa, inspired by China's example.
Human capital as the foundation
The second investment, and in his view the most important, is human capital: basic healthcare, nutrition, healthy child development, and then children in school, learning. He was unequivocal that Africa needs all of its school-age children in school, all of them. He called for no child to be left without secondary schooling and no learner to be without a laptop or digital access.
Long-term capital at the right cost
Sachs argued that "Africa needs more debt, not less debt," contending that global institutions have systematically denied the continent the capital it needs to grow. He called specifically for international loan financing at interest rates comparable to those available to the United States. He outlined concrete targets: raise infrastructure investment to 40 percent of GDP and launch a "Made in Africa 2035" strategy. He was sharply critical of global credit rating agencies for applying what he called "crude, cookie-cutter methods" to African sovereign debt, particularly the sovereign ceiling rule that blocks domestic firms from outperforming their government's credit rating.
Continental unity as the enabling condition
None of the other three pillars work at the scale required without this one. Sachs praised the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), a continent-wide trade agreement, as a genuine and increasingly viable initiative, though he noted its implementation is moving too slowly. He called for accelerated operationalization and endorsed a single African Union currency as both feasible and essential for building a true continental economy. He argued the private sector will expand rapidly under four conditions: a well-trained labor force, good infrastructure, a single African market in which goods can be shipped quickly and tariff-free across the continent, and open investment relations with China, India, Latin America, Turkey, the Arab nations, and the BRICS countries.
Underpinning all four pillars is his conviction that the psychological shift matters as much as the structural one. Sachs agreed with co-panelist Kishore Mahbubani that no amount of capital or policy reform can substitute for belief in Africa's potential.
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